\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 405 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) )
Event overview: on March 30, the company released 2021 performance express and 2022 Q1 forecast: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 3.06 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139.3%; The net profit after non deduction was 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.1%, which was close to the upper limit of the previous performance forecast. In Q1 2022, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10-13 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 123.0% – 130.0%. Against the trend, the company has achieved a significant turnaround from loss to profit (a loss of 45 million yuan in the same period last year).
Reshape the business system and comprehensively transform to the strategy of intelligent travel technology company. Facing the historic changes in the automotive industry, the company will focus on automotive intelligence and form a new business system of “smart cloud, smart driving, smart cabin and smart core”. Among them, smart cloud business focuses on location big data services and “compliance + high-precision map + positioning” as the core cloud services; Intelligent driving business is mainly advanced assistance and automatic driving business, that is to provide automatic driving software and hardware integrated solutions for the whole scene; Smart cabin provides dynamic travel information, intelligent Internet connection, intelligent cabin terminal equipment and integrated software and hardware solutions around the cabin ecology; Smart chip focuses on automotive electronic chips, and its product line includes IVI information and entertainment chip, MCU body control chip, TPMS tire pressure monitoring chip and amp vehicle power chip. According to the company’s express, the annual operating revenue of the company is expected to reach 3.06 billion yuan in 2021, which is the peak since its listing, with a very bright performance. According to our judgment, there are mainly the following reasons: 1) smart cloud: the breakthrough of big data services is accelerated, and the cloud compliance business is gradually implemented. We expect the growth rate to reach 50% +; 2) Zhijia: benefiting from the substantial increase in commercial mass production cooperation, we expect the annual growth rate to reach 60% +; 3) Smart Cabin: benefiting from the acceleration of commercialization, the intelligent cockpit series products and solutions integrating front mounted software and hardware have been continuously recognized and affirmed by car factory customers. We expect the growth rate to reach 40% +; 4) Smart core: the shipment volume and revenue contribution of vehicle specification MCU increased more than ten times year-on-year in 2020, and the shipment volume of other chips increased steadily.
22q1 bucked the trend and turned losses into profits. The growth of cloud business is worth looking forward to. In 2022q1, under the adverse macro background of the impact of the epidemic and weak automobile sales, the company reversed the trend and turned losses into profits, realizing a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10-13 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 123.0% – 130.0%. Among them, in the face of the global core shortage environment, the company continued to optimize supply chain management, accelerated the expansion of vehicle specification MCU customer scale, and achieved a large increase in chip shipments and smart core business revenue year-on-year; Zhiyun business benefited from the growth of sales of key models of major OEM customers and the accelerated promotion of big data service cooperation projects, resulting in a significant increase in revenue. In addition, it is worth noting that after Daimler, Volvo, Ford and other orders, according to the company’s disclosure, new orders have been successively obtained in major carmakers and new forces this year, “Compliance + map + positioning” and automatic driving service have entered China’s leading independent brand. In our report Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) : national team for automotive data security, we have also comprehensively analyzed the company’s competitive advantages here. The growth of subsequent relevant orders and cloud business is worth looking forward to!
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 121 / 492 / 924 million in 21-23 years, and the current market value corresponds to 68 / 36 times of PE in 22 / 23 years. We believe that the company has the status of “national team” of automobile data security, with higher competition barriers and obvious follow-up market space. Therefore, the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the impact of fluctuations in the global auto market; The recovery of upstream supply is less than expected; The R & D process of new technology does not meet expectations; New orders were not as expected.
