\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 136.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 45.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.8% and a month on month increase of 25.8%.
ASP reached a new high in a single season, and the brand has achieved initial results. In 2021, 1281000 vehicles were sold in batches, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; Among them, 398000 Q4 vehicles were sold in batches, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% and a month on month increase of 46.2%. In 2021, ASP was 107000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14000 yuan; Among them, q4asp was 115000 yuan, a record high, with a month on month increase of 6000 yuan, mainly due to the tightening of rebate policy and the increase in the proportion of tank 300, Great Wall gun, haver big dog and Euler good cat with high unit price, reflecting the initial upward effect of the brand.
Q4 gross profit margin was basically flat month on month, and the company’s operation was stable. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 16.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1pct; The gross profit margin of Q4 was 15.3%, down 2.0pct month on month, mainly due to the adjustment of accounting policies. The transportation expenses were caused by the inclusion of sales expenses into operating costs. After excluding this impact, the gross profit margin was basically flat month on month. In 2021, the non net profit deducted was 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; Among them, the non net profit deducted from Q4 was 550 million yuan, down 32.2% month on month, mainly due to: 1) about 530 million yuan of equity incentive expenses accrued from Q4; 2) Q4 Euler compensation equity expense is about 450 million yuan; 3) In 2021, the number of employees increased by 23.4% year-on-year, and the employee cost increased by about 4 billion yuan. Excluding the impact of equity incentive and Euler compensation, the adjusted Q4 deduction non net profit was 1.53 billion yuan, an increase of 29.6% month on month, reflecting the steady operation of the company.
The cost rate is stable, equity incentive and R & D investment consolidate competitiveness. In 2021, the sales expense ratio was 3.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pct; Among them, the sales expense rate of Q4 was 2.8%, with a month on month decrease of 2.2pct (due to freight included in cost). In 2021, the management expense ratio was 6.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8pct, mainly due to the increase in the number of managers and equity incentive expenses; Among them, the Q4 management fee rate was 7.2%, unchanged month on month. In 2021, the R & D expense ratio was 3.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3pct; Among them, the R & D expense rate of Q4 was 3.6%, with a month on month increase of 0.1pct. In 2021, the company increased its R & D investment in intelligent, motorized and new model projects. At present, the company has rich reserves of new models. With the continuous improvement of production and marketing scale, it is expected to reduce the R & D cost rate.
Adhering to category innovation and brand improvement, it is expected to increase both in volume and profit in 22 years. According to the tank app, as of March 29, the cumulative orders of tank 500 exceeded 44000. Since March 20, the average daily orders have increased by about 267. The orders are full, which is expected to contribute to significant performance increment. Ballet cat / lightning cat / punk cat will be listed one after another, which is expected to boost Euler’s profitability; Wey dream, SUV, MPV and other new models are worth looking forward to. At the same time, wey brand will accelerate the channel reform and build a partner channel model, and the brand strength is expected to be improved. At present, the company has successfully developed subdivided categories such as tank / Euler / haver cool dog, and established a brand moat in the Red Sea. In the future, a number of high price / high profit models will be launched soon, which is expected to achieve both volume and profit.
Investment suggestion: considering the rising prices of batteries, chips and other raw materials, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022e to 2023e to 10.15 billion yuan and 14.1 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 18.94 billion yuan, corresponding to the current market value. PE from 2022 to 2024 will be 26.0, 18.7 and 13.9 times respectively, maintaining the six-month target price of 45.5 yuan / share, corresponding to 41.4 times PE in 2022, and maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: there is a continuous shortage of chips, the sales of new models are less than expected, and the overseas business expansion is less than expected.
