\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 187 Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) )
[key points of investment]
In 2021, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 6% and 19% year-on-year. The company released the annual report of 2021. The annual revenue of the company was 15.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, the gross profit margin was 33.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5pct, the net profit attributable to the parent was 13.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1pct, which was basically in line with the expectation.
Rail transit business revenue is under pressure in 2021, and Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) develops rapidly. The year-on-year decrease in revenue in 2021 was mainly due to the pressure on the revenue of rail transit equipment products. The annual revenue of rail transit equipment of the company was 12.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, of which the revenue of rail transit electrical equipment decreased by 11.0% to 9.45 billion yuan, the revenue of rail engineering machinery increased by 5.6% to 2.13 billion yuan, and the revenue of communication signal business decreased by 54.5% to 270 million yuan, The revenue from other rail transit equipment business decreased by 38.4% year-on-year to 400 million yuan Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business developed rapidly. In 2021, the revenue was 2.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, of which the revenue of power semiconductor devices was 1.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, the revenue of industrial converter was 530 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, the revenue of electric drive system of new energy vehicles was 460 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 171.3%, the revenue of marine engineering equipment was 290 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, and the revenue of sensor devices was 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7%.
Based on R & D, power semiconductor has become the second growth curve. In 2021, the company's R & D expense ratio was 11.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7pct. The company's IGBT was delivered in batches in the field of rail transit and power grid, with the market share ranking first in China. It made a heavy attack on the field of new energy vehicles and new energy power generation, and 3300v / 6500v intelligent integrated power module pcu2 0 prototype and card type rotary mold double-sided heat dissipation IGBT module samples have been successfully developed. The scientific and technological achievements of 750V fine groove IGBT for automobile are firm, and the overall level is international leading. The production capacity of IGBT phase II chip production line has climbed smoothly, and we expect it to be fully released in 2022. The 3300v traction converter with full SiC devices is operated in Shenzhen line 1, reducing traction energy consumption. At the end of December 2021, the company officially released China's first high-power electric channel product c-power220s based on independent SiC devices, with a maximum system efficiency of 94%, which is suitable for high-end cars, SUVs and other models. In addition to the field of new energy vehicles, CRRC SiC has achieved demonstration applications in subway, photovoltaic and other fields.
Rail transit maintains a leading position. The company consolidated the strength of rail transit business, led the industry in the market share of urban rail traction system in China, signed a new single record for non traction products, won cross platform maintenance orders for urban rail, and won the bid for the first condition repair project of Metro Traction System in China; The first CBTC project outside Hunan Province, Wuxi Metro Line 4, was put into trial operation. The new contract of urban rail signal system in China reached a record high, and achieved the first breakthrough of overseas signal; Breakthrough in the first order of multi-functional mechanical operation vehicle for public works.
[investment suggestions]
We slightly raised the company's revenue forecast for 20222023 to 15.64/16.88 billion yuan respectively, slightly lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company to 2.01/2.2 billion yuan respectively, increased the forecast of revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 18.38 and 2.32 billion yuan respectively, PE corresponding to 40.54, 36.96 and 35.02 times (closing price on March 29, 2022), and gave the company 25 times PS in 2022, with a corresponding market value of 53.4 billion yuan, Valuate other businesses except power semiconductor according to the P / E ratio, and give the company 23 times the P / E ratio in 2022, with the corresponding market value of 46.1 billion yuan. To sum up, we expect the reasonable market value of the company to be 99.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the six-month target price of 70.28 yuan / share, maintaining the Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) "buy" rating.
[risk tips]
The competition in rail transit equipment and power semiconductor industry has intensified. High customer concentration. Power semiconductor production capacity climbed less than expected.
