\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021: the operating revenue was 216142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.08%.
Comments:
Revenue grew rapidly, and all business segments increased significantly. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 216142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.02%; In the fourth quarter, the revenue was 70.95 billion yuan, an increase of 37.57% year-on-year and 30.65% month on month. By business, the company’s auto related business achieved a revenue of 112489 billion yuan, accounting for 52.04%, an increase of 33.93% year-on-year; Electronic related businesses achieved a revenue of 86.454 billion yuan, accounting for 40.00%. A year-on-year increase of 43.99%; Secondary battery and other businesses achieved a revenue of 16.471 billion yuan, accounting for 7.62%, with a year-on-year increase of 36.27%.
The company’s business revenue has increased significantly. We believe that the main reasons are as follows: ① automobile related business: the common development of plug-in hybrid and pure electric, and the joint efforts of DM-I super hybrid, blade battery and E platform 3.0, so as to create a variety of popular products, and the sales volume is rising day by day. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market share of the company’s new energy vehicles reached 17.1% in 2021, with an increase of nearly 8% during the year. The sales volume led the Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle market and remained in the forefront of the world. ② Electronic related business: adhere to diversified layout and constantly introduce new business areas. The business share of Android major customers continues to increase, and the business layout of major customers in North America continues to strengthen; Shipments of smart home, game hardware, UAVs and other products continued to grow; Electronic atomization products are progressing smoothly; The shipment volume of automotive intelligent system products increased significantly. ③ Secondary battery and other businesses: in 2021, the R & D and capacity expansion of related products were smooth, and the upgrading of battery technology was accelerated to promote business growth.
Disturbed by multiple factors, the profit fell year-on-year. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.08%; In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 602 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.64%. The annual gross profit margin was 13.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.36 PCT, and the net profit margin was 1.84%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.00 PCT; In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin was 13.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47 PCT, a month on month decrease of 0.21 PCT, and the net profit margin was 0.95%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21 PCT and a month on month decrease of 1.79 PCT.
We believe that the main reasons for the decline of the company’s profitability are: ① provision for impairment loss: the company made asset impairment loss and credit impairment loss of 857 million yuan and 388 million yuan respectively throughout the year; In 21q4, 618 million yuan and 282 million yuan were withdrawn respectively; ② Affected by Byd Company Limited(002594) Electronics: the company holds 65.76% of the equity of Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics, and Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.31 billion yuan in 21 years, and the net profit attributable to Byd Company Limited(002594) was 1.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.55%; According to this calculation, the impact of Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics on the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is -2.06 billion yuan Byd Company Limited(002594) electronic’s profit decline in the past 21 years was mainly due to the year-on-year decline in the demand for medical products after the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, as well as fluctuations in customer demand caused by repeated epidemics and lack of core in the industry, resulting in low capacity utilization of the company. ③ Price rise of raw materials: the price rise of lithium carbonate, aluminum and other raw materials has put pressure on the company’s profits.
Sales volume is expected to continue to grow at a high speed, and the superposition of vehicle price rise and scale effect is expected to improve profitability. At present, the sales volume of the company is improving and there are abundant orders on hand. From January to February 2022, the cumulative sales volume reached 186000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 194.50%. With the sales of dolphin, song prodmi and other models climbing and the delivery of new models, the company’s sales are expected to continue to grow at a high speed. We expect that the total sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) will exceed 1.5 million units in 2022. The company is expected to dilute costs through a significant increase in production, so as to improve profitability. In addition, the company has raised the price of models twice in January and March respectively. The rise in vehicle price is expected to transmit the pressure of the company’s price rise on the cost side and improve its profitability.
The 2022 model planning is bright, and the capacity improvement and sea going strategy contribute to the sales target. ① In terms of model planning, the four sectors of Dynasty, ocean, Tengshi and high-end brands will be juxtaposed, so as to cover the 600001 million yuan automobile market. Ocean network: Ocean series plans to launch three models of seals, seagulls and sea lions in 2022. The warship series will be combined with DM-I super hybrid technology. Wang Chaowang: Han DM-I opens pre-sale. In the field of medium and high-end vehicles, Tengshi brand will launch three new models from 2022; In addition, the company will launch a new high-end new energy brand and fight the high-end market again. ② Capacity improvement: the company plans to build or expand eight factories from 2021; By 2022, the actual available capacity will reach 1.9 million units. ③ Overseas layout: Tang EV will be shipped to Norway in June 2021; The yuan plus model officially launched in February 2022, as the first global model in the company’s sea going strategy, has officially entered the Australian market.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the long-term development of the company under the background of automobile intelligent electric transformation. We believe that the company’s sales volume is expected to continue to grow at a high speed in 2022, the superposition of vehicle price rise and scale effect is expected to improve the profitability, technology upgrading drives the product cycle, and the company is expected to increase both volume and profit in 2022. We raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 9.66 billion and 14.65 billion yuan to 10.15 billion and 15.82 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, corresponding to 66 and 43 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the recovery of the epidemic is not as expected, the promotion and sales of new models are not as expected, and the price of raw materials continues to rise
