\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Events
On the evening of March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 2.282 billion yuan, an increase of 16.47% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 151 million yuan, with a decrease of 37.65%; 91 million yuan, a decrease of 51.73%.
Key investment points
Turning losses into profits in the fourth quarter, short-term factors affect the gross profit margin
The company's revenue in 2021 was 2.282 billion yuan, an increase of 16.47% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 151 million yuan, with a decrease of 37.65%; Deduct non RMB 91 million, with a decrease of 51.73%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 654 million yuan, an increase of 24.65% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, an increase of 37.90% at the same time; Deduction of non RMB 66 million, an increase of 40.68% at the same time. In the fourth quarter, the improvement of revenue and profit was accelerated month on month, and the loss was turned into profit in the fourth quarter, which is the initial effect of the company's adjustment measures.
The company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 35.7% (- 8pct), of which 2021q4 was 25.5% (- 22pct), which was due to the rise in costs in the fourth quarter and the impact of new products on the product structure. The net interest rate was 6.8% (- 5.6pct) in 2021, including 11.2% (+ 1PCT) in 2021q4. The cost control effect was significant in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the sales expense was 505 million yuan (with an increase of 7%), which was caused by the company's increasing market expansion and market investment and disbursing 35 million yuan of share payment expenses in accordance with the newly planned marketing strategic layout. The management fee was 119 million yuan (an increase of 24% at the same time), which was the transformation and upgrading of human resources and operation management and the disbursed share payment fee of 24 million yuan.
The proportion of non direct sales continued to increase, and the overall volume contribution was greater than the price
In terms of products, the revenue of leisure baked snacks (including potato chips) in 2021 was 754 million yuan, an increase of 10.8% and a gross profit margin of 36% (-9pct); Leisure deep-sea snacks amounted to 407 million yuan, with an increase of 37% and a gross profit margin of 48% (- 13pct); Leisure meat and fish amounted to 301 million yuan, with an increase of 22.5% and a gross profit margin of 37.6% (-8pct). In terms of volume and price: in 2021, the sales volume of leisure baked snacks (including potato chips) was 35000 tons (+ 21%), and the corresponding ton price was 21500 yuan / ton (- 9%); The sales volume of leisure deep-sea snacks is 20400 tons (+ 25%), and the corresponding ton price is 20000 yuan / ton (+ 10.5%); The sales volume of leisure meat and fish is 7600 tons (+ 40%), and the corresponding ton price is 39600 yuan / ton (- 13%). The sales volume of preserved fruit and dried fruit is 7500 tons (+ 21%), the sales volume of fried products is 14000 tons (+ 1.3%), and the sales volume of leisure vegetarian food is 6600 tons (+ 70%).
In terms of subregions, the revenue of East China in 2021 was 400 million yuan (+ 10%), accounting for 17.53% (- 1PCT); Southwest + northwest revenue is 322 million yuan (+ 19%), accounting for 14.11% (+ 0.3pct); The revenue of North China + Northeast China is 80 million yuan (- 0.5%), accounting for 3.5% (- 0.5pct); Central China 1.023 billion yuan (+ 20%), accounting for 45%; 455 million yuan (+ 17%) in South China, accounting for 20%. From the perspective of sub channels: 1) by the end of 2021, the company has directly operated 2131 Ka stores of 49 large chain supermarkets (Note: some supermarket systems and store stores have been transferred and operated by dealers in 2021). In 2021, the excess revenue of direct operators was 659 million yuan (+ 4.6%), accounting for 28.9% in 2021 from 32.2% in 2020. 2) By the end of 2021, the company had 1749 distributors, with 869 newly added, covering 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government. In 2021, the distribution channel revenue was 1.483 billion yuan (21.7%), accounting for 65% in 2021 from 62% in 2020. 3) In 2021, the revenue of e-commerce was 139 million yuan (+ 27.5%), accounting for 6.1% in 2021 from 5.6% in 2020.
Double middle island strategy remains unchanged, focusing on building four brands
The company is committed to the "source control and product safety" of food production and sales. The company pays attention to the construction of marketing channels, and vigorously promotes the "double middle island strategy" of " Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) " snack house and "bean dad" bakery "with" direct business surpassing the benchmark, dealers expanding in an all-round way, channels sinking, and active breakthroughs in emerging channels such as e-commerce and snack channels ". At present, there are four production bases in Liuyang, Hunan, Xiushui, Jiangxi, Pingxiang, Guangxi and Luohe, Henan. More than 95% of all leisure snacks sold by the company are produced by the company itself.
In 2022, the company focused on two points: 1) focusing on the five categories of deep-sea snacks, spicy brine, short-term guarantee baking, potato and dried fruit, and building four brands, namely the main brand of " Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) " spicy brine Zero food, "the sub brand of" 31 ° fresh "medium and high-end deep-sea Zero food," short-term guarantee leisure baking "and the sub brand of" potato chip "under the brand of" father bean ". 2) The new sales points of the salty flavor business division are planned to double, and the standardized display of sales points is comprehensively promoted; The baking division launched 10000 new counters and opened 35000 outlets; The quantitative packaging business department will focus on 16 core provinces and cities, launch the store market launch meeting + multi-point display, and cover 100000 terminals.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company's reform in products and channels, and are expected to complete the equity incentive target in 2022. We expect that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.04/3.08/4.11 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 29 / 20 / 15 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the promotion of new products is not as expected, the risk of rising raw materials, the reduction of business overload passenger flow, etc.
