\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: the company issued a pre increase announcement of performance in the first quarter of 2022, which is in line with our expectations. It is expected that the revenue in Q1 of 2022 will reach 3.63 billion yuan ~ 3.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% ~ 54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 346 million yuan ~ 386 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% ~ 57%, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 9.5% ~ 10.2%, and the chain was 1.4pct ~ 2.1pct higher than Q4; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 340 million yuan to 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% ~ 58%. In March 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.10 ~ 1.2 billion yuan, a net profit attributable to the parent of 96 ~ 136 million yuan, and a net profit margin attributable to the parent of 8.7% ~ 11.3%.
The large volume of core t customers promoted the year-on-year growth of Q1 revenue in 2022, and the platform strategy and tier 0.5 marketing strategy were promoted smoothly. From January to February 2022, the company’s core t customers in China achieved an output of 123000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 154.7% and a month on month increase of – 0.2%, and the supporting value of single vehicle is significantly higher than that of other customers. In 2021, Q4 Shanghai aluminum index fell by 17.9% month on month, and the final decline was 9.5%. The company has a certain production cycle from the purchase of raw materials to the delivery of products. The products shipped in Q1 use the raw materials purchased in Q4 in 2021, which drives the company’s Q1 return to parent profit margin to increase by 1.4pct ~ 2.1pct month on month. During the reporting period, the company’s product platform strategy and t0 The level 5 marketing strategy has been promoted smoothly, and all businesses have achieved rapid development. Businesses such as lightweight chassis and thermal management for intelligent electric vehicles have grown strongly. The steering system, braking system and air suspension businesses related to chassis by wire have also achieved good development, promoting the continuous rapid growth of operating income and net profit.
New products and projects have been continuously promoted, and the integrated die casting has been successfully put into mass production: 1) the company continues to promote the R & D and verification of version 2.0 of integrated heat pump system assembly; 2) The new generation of intelligent braking system ibs-pro has successfully passed the customer’s acceptance in winter, and the company expects to achieve mass production in 2022; 3) The first air suspension is officially completed and will be put into operation in mid-2022; 4) The 7200T integrated super large die-casting rear cabin cooperated with Gaohe automobile has successfully achieved mass production, and has become the first parts supplier of super large integrated aluminum alloy structural parts in China. With the continuous improvement of the production capacity of T customers outside China and the gradual increase of new customers such as Ford, rivian and AITO, as well as products such as automotive electronics, air suspension and integrated die casting, it is expected that the company’s revenue and profit will continue to maintain rapid growth and further release its performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the company’s new customers and new projects are expected to gradually increase in volume. We maintain the company’s performance forecast. From 2021 to 2023, the revenue will be RMB 11.438/17.18/22.643 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 75.68% / + 48.78% / + 33.05% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.045/1.695/2.362 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 66.28% / + 62.30% / + 39.30% respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.95/1.54/2.14 yuan and the corresponding PE is 58.36/35.96/25.82 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased less than expected.
