\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
The performance is in line with expectations, and the new material project is expected to start construction, maintaining the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 26.636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 103.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 303.37%. Corresponding to Q4 single quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 106.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 223.40%. In 2021, the price of the company’s main products increased year-on-year, driving the year-on-year growth of performance. The company accelerates the layout of new material projects. In the long term, Jingzhou base is expected to rebuild a Dezhou base, with a growth period. At the same time, the company’s Q1 performance forecast in 2022 is much higher than expected. We increased the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 8.033 (+ 13.17), RMB 8.680 (+ 12.85) and RMB 8.874 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.80 (+ 0.62), RMB 4.11 (+ 0.61) and RMB 4.20 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 8.5, 7.9 and 7.7 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Q4 coal price remained high, resulting in the decline of the company’s performance month on month, which is optimistic about the year-on-year growth of the company’s performance in 2022
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average price and month on month variation range of Q4 coal and various products in 2021 are 1210 (+ 32.06%), 2683 (+ 2.47%), 5815 (+ 12.96%), 14051 (- 16.09%), 6994 (+ 9.03%), dmf16202 (+ 0.39%) and 12749 (+ 18.64%) yuan / ton of adipic acid respectively. In the later period of Q3, the coal price rose sharply, which slowed down the benefit growth to a certain extent. However, the company actively promoted the production of new projects, timely adjusted the product structure and improved the profitability of the company. According to the company’s annual report, the company moderately increased the output of organic amine sector, and its output was + 33.77% year-on-year. The 300000 ton carbonate project and 300000 ton caprolactam project put into operation in 2021 will continue to contribute to the performance increment in 2022. At present, the price of crude oil and products remains high. We are still optimistic about the year-on-year growth of the company’s performance in 2022.
The company accelerates the layout of new material projects and is optimistic about the long-term growth of the company
According to qilu.com, on February 25, Shandong Dezhou held a centralized commencement of major projects, and the company’s high-end solvent and nylon 66 high-end new material projects were prominently listed. After the high-end solvent project unit is completed and put into operation, it will produce 300000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 300000 tons of methyl ethyl carbonate and 50000 tons of diethyl carbonate. Nylon 66 will build two 40000 t / a units. The two major projects are expected to start in 2022, and the growth space of Dezhou base may be further opened in the future. According to the company’s official website, the company will build a 300000 t / a dicarboxylic acid project in Dezhou park. The company continues to layout new production capacity and is optimistic about the company’s future growth.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc.
