\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Core view
The company announced the dividend plan to repay the support of shareholders. The company announced that in order to actively repay the support and love of the majority of investors for the company, after research, the company preliminarily considered that the amount of cash dividend in 2021 should not be less than 11.5 billion yuan (including tax), and the dividend rate is about 49%. In 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan (YoY + 15.5%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 23.35 billion yuan (YoY + 17.0%); Among them, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company is about 35.27% (YoY + 0.46pct), and the profitability continues to improve.
Puwu raised the retail guidance price, and the wholesale price is expected to rise gradually. Recently, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating has been stable at about 960 ~ 970 yuan, basically unchanged month on month, and remained stable under the background of short-term adjustment of Feitian rating. The company recently raised the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) suggested retail price from 1399 yuan / bottle to 1499 yuan / bottle, which was the same as that of Feitian Maotai, further improving the market positioning of puwu. After March, Baijiu consumption has been in the off-season, and the company has promoted the price of general five by way of controlling goods. After the company’s factory price is raised, the price of the products will gradually increase to more than 1000 yuan with the gradual sale of low cost products, so as to boost the confidence of the channel.
The company’s valuation trend is not high in the short term, but not in the long term. After the new management of the company takes office, the corporate governance will be further improved, and the control of channels is expected to be strengthened. In terms of product structure, the company continues to strengthen the layout of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the price band of 2000 yuan. At present, the rated price of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is about 1750 yuan, which remains stable. At the beginning of March, wuliangchun released its new product “wuliangchun · famous family”. The market recommended retail price is 728 yuan, positioning it as a secondary high-end. After the return of wuliangchun brand to the company, the series wine system is more perfect, and the company has sufficient base wine production capacity and rich reserves, which is expected to open important incremental space in the secondary high-end field. This year, the overall adjustment of the market, the risk of overseas conflicts and other factors, Baijiu sector continued to adjust, the company’s 22 years PE is only about 21 times. Considering the competitive advantage of the brand, channel and product strength in the high-end Baijiu, we think the company has a high value of long term allocation.
Profit and investment forecast
According to the performance forecast, reduce the revenue and gross profit margin, and predict the company’s earnings per share of 6.02, 7.02 and 8.18 yuan in 21-23 years respectively (the original forecast of 6.11, 7.25 and 8.51 yuan in 21-23 years). In combination with the valuation of comparable companies, 29 times PE in 22 years is given, corresponding to the target price of 203.58 yuan, and the buy rating is maintained.
Risk warning: weak channel profit, lower price than expected, and risk of food safety events.
