\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 997 Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) )
Under the influence of multiple adverse factors, grammer has achieved profitability and full resilience in 21 years
According to grammer's annual report, the annual revenue in 2021 was 1.9 billion euros, yoy + 11.2%, of which the Asia Pacific market revenue was yoy + 20%. In terms of profitability, the annual ebitmargin of grammer is 1% and - 2.7% in 2020, turning losses into profits, but it does not reach the pre epidemic level (3.7% in 2019). The main reasons are the decline in capacity utilization caused by repeated epidemic and lack of core, as well as the rise in freight and raw material prices. Among them, Europe and Asia Pacific performed better. In 2021, the ebitmargin in Europe was 4.1% (year-on-year + 5pct) and that in Asia Pacific was 13% (year-on-year + 4.3pct). Grammer made a profit of about 650000 euros in 2021 and turned a substantial loss into profit. Grammer lost 65 million euros in 2020.
Grammer's localization is advancing steadily, and the integration effect is about to be released
We are still confident in the integration of grammer. This overseas M & A is based on the understanding and precipitation of the same industrial chain, and has replicability in management and manufacturing experience, resulting in the certainty of integration. Since the merger of grammer in 2019, we have encountered external shocks such as epidemic, core shortage, global inflation and Russia Ukraine war, and the integration effect has not yet appeared. It is expected that grammer's profitability will be repaired after the external shocks are cleared one by one, At the same time, grammer's commercial vehicle seat business is accelerating localization.
The new forces of the seat have a promising future
Pay attention to the historic opportunity of reshaping the pattern of the passenger car industry. The company has taken the lead in the field of headrest to enter the passenger car seat assembly strongly. The seat market is a 100 billion track and there is a large space for import substitution. The company is expected to continue to break through major customers by virtue of technology, response speed, globalization ability and cost advantages. It is expected that the company will continue to make new progress in the field of passenger car seat assembly in 22 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
Grammer integration is coming to an end, which will release greater performance flexibility. In the medium and long term, the company is optimistic about the development of passenger car seats in the new track and is expected to become a domestic passenger car seat assembly head enterprise. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 361 / 7.63 / 1120 million, yoy will be 203.33% / 111.36% / 46.64%, EPS will be RMB 0.32/0.68/1.00/share, corresponding to pe29.00 71 / 14.06 / 9.58 times, with a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the chip supply is less than expected, and the price of raw materials is rising
