\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Performance overview
In 2021 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) achieved an operating revenue of 34.25 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%; The weighted average return on net assets was 10.67%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.07pct. Q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 7.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, and the performance was slightly lower than expected. In terms of business lines, the year-on-year growth rate of net income from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest and investment in 2021 was 21% / – 33% / 51% / 16% / – 15% respectively, accounting for 23% / 1% / 29% / 14% / 17% of total revenue.
Asset management remains the engine of growth
In 2021, the net income of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) asset management business was 9.95 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 51%, which was the main driving force for performance growth. (1) Asset management of securities companies: in 2021, the net value of asset management of GF increased by 62% year-on-year, of which the proportion of collective asset management increased by 26pct to 71%. Guangfa asset management takes the lead in the transformation of active management. The average monthly scale of active management in 21q4 is 474.9 billion, ranking third in the industry. The proportion of active management has increased from 69% in 16q4 to 95% in 21q4, second only to CICC. (2) Public funds: at the end of 2021, e fund and gf’s non monetary AUM were 692 / 1228.9 billion respectively, ranking third in the market. Together, they contributed 23% to gf’s net profit.
Increased contribution to wealth management
In 2021, the income from Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) consignment sales of financial products was 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 85% year-on-year, and the proportion in the net income of brokerage business increased 5pct to 14%. At the end of 2021, the holding scale of the company’s financial products sold on a commission basis increased by 17% year-on-year, and the holding scale of stocks sold on a commission basis + mixed public funds / non commodity basic guarantee ranked third among securities companies.
Investment banking business needs to be restored
In 2021, the net income of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) investment banking business was 433 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, still in the throes after the punishment of risk events. In 2021, the equity / bond underwriting was completed by 1.4/31 billion yuan. The core team of the company’s sponsors is basically stable, the internal control system is further improved after the adjustment of the investment bank’s organizational structure, and the project risk is controllable. As of March 29, 2021, the company has 11 IPO project reserves, and the follow-up business is expected to recover gradually.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company’s asset management + wealth management business chain continues to drive performance growth, and the performance of investment banks is expected to be released gradually. It is expected that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 20% / 11% / 17%, corresponding to BPS of 15.20/16.55/18.12 yuan per share. Maintain the target price of 26.16 yuan, corresponding to pb1.5 yuan in 2022 2X, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The macro-economy has declined significantly; The recovery of investment banking business was less than expected.
