\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 111 Air China Limited(601111) )
Key investment points
Summary of performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 74.5 billion yuan (year-on-year + 7.2%), corresponding to a loss of 16.6 billion yuan in net profit attributable to the parent (14.4 billion yuan in the same period of 20 years), deducting a loss of 17.1 billion yuan in net profit not attributable to the parent (14.7 billion yuan in the same period of 20 years), which expanded the loss. Quarterly, Q1 ~ Q4 revenue is 14.6 billion yuan, 23.1 billion yuan, 19.8 billion yuan and 17.1 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company is – 6.2 billion yuan, – 600 million yuan, – 3.5 billion yuan and – 6.3 billion yuan respectively.
The loss of foreign exchange deduction core profit was about 17.8 billion yuan. In 2021, the RMB appreciated by 6.91%, and the net exchange gain of the company was 1.2 billion yuan (the exchange gain in the same period of 20 years was 3.6 billion yuan). In 2021, the exchange rate sensitivity of the company was 330 million yuan (370 million yuan in the same period of 20 years).
In terms of operation data, RPK was – 4.7% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 45% compared with 19 years. Among them, China’s RPK increased by 5% year-on-year, 74% in the same period of 19 years. Ask was – 2.3% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 53% compared with 19 years. In terms of seating rate, the annual seating rate in 21 years was 68.63% (year-on-year -1.75pp). In terms of fleet introduction, the compound growth rate of 20222024 fleet is 0.97%. As of December 2021, the company has 746 aircrafts and has introduced 39 aircrafts in 2021. It is estimated that the size of the company’s aircraft fleet from 2022 to 2024 will be 770, 770 and 768 respectively.
Customer revenue picked up and unit costs rose. In 2021, the revenue per passenger kilometer was 0.56 yuan (year-on-year + 9.9%), of which the revenue of China line was 0.53 yuan (year-on-year + 14.0%), the revenue of regional line was 0.69 yuan (year-on-year – 15.3%), and the revenue of international line was 1.85 yuan (year-on-year + 125.8%). In 2021, the unit cost of the company was 0.5631 yuan (year-on-year + 16.2%), of which the unit fuel cost was 0.1358 yuan (year-on-year + 43.0%), and the unit fuel deduction cost was 0.4273 yuan (year-on-year + 9.7%). In 2021, the oil distribution center rose by 70%, and the crude oil price sharply put great pressure on the cost side of airlines.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. During the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aircraft fleet size in the aviation industry is expected to be less than 6%, and the compound growth rate of demand in the same period is 5.9%. Civil aviation will usher in the improvement of supply and demand structure in the medium term. Affected by the epidemic in China and the world, we lowered our profit forecast for 2022 and beyond. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be – 13, – 9.4 and 2.4 billion yuan, corresponding to – 11, – 15 and 58 times of PE. Maintain a “hold” rating.
Risk tip: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of travel demand is blocked, the macro-economy is down, and the cost of crude oil is rising.
