\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 866 Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of RMB 6.335 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 6.24%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 763 million, a year-on-year increase of – 13.54%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 716 million, a year-on-year increase of – 14.40%. The operating revenue of 21q4 was 1.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.08%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.95%, deducting 186 million yuan of non net profit, a year-on-year increase of – 1.02%.
21 year revenue side: power rationing + epidemic affects both sides of supply and demand, and 21 year revenue is under pressure. In terms of products, the income of bread and cakes, moon cakes and zongzi increased by 6.01%, 13.54% and 61.91% respectively, and the core business bread and cakes contributed about 98% of the income. In terms of subregions, East China, South China and central China have seen a bright growth, with revenue increasing by 16.85%, 15.48% and 48.38% respectively. The development of channels has contributed to the main increment. The revenue of northeast and North China of the base market has increased by 2.82% and 2.34% respectively. The channel penetration has been relatively perfect, but there is still room for sinking. From the perspective of 21q4, the income of Northeast China showed negative growth, mainly due to the impact of the film on the production end, and the epidemic situation in some areas repeatedly affected the demand.
Profit side in 21 years: price increase of raw material cost + low cost base in the same period last year, and the profit margin in 21 years is under pressure. In 21 years, the gross profit margin of the company was 26.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7pct, and the net profit margin was 12%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8pct. The decline in net profit margin was mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin, the reduction of cost side sales expense rate and financial expense rate, and digested some of the pressure of the decline in gross profit margin. The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials, and the low cost base was affected by the national phased social security relief policy last year.
22 year Outlook: the revenue and profit target will increase by 10%, and the production capacity launch + price increase transmission is expected to bring marginal improvement. The company set a growth target of 10% of revenue and profit in 22 years. We believe that with the price increase of 21q4 company and the gradual launch of new production capacity of more than 290000 tons in Northeast, South and East China, the marginal improvement in 22 years can be expected.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s income in 22-24 years is RMB 7.064/81.09/9.293 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent is RMB 842/9.81/1.145 billion, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity is less than expected, the cost of raw materials increases, and the epidemic repeatedly affects the demand.
