\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) annual revenue growth continued to maintain an upward trend and achieved double-digit high growth; Under the guidance of financial technology empowerment, investment in information technology has increased, and the growth rate of profit before provision has narrowed compared with the first three quarters, still achieving an increase of 8%; Net profit increased by 18.7% year-on-year, at the highest growth level among state-owned banks. 2. The construction of wealth management system continued to advance, and personal micro loans maintained a high growth, accounting for 23% of the new loans in the whole year. Retail sales increased by nearly 70% in the whole year, of which personal microfinance increased by 23%, which is at a higher level than in the past. At the same time, with the promotion of the construction of wealth management system, the relevant medium income maintained a good growth, the handling fee income of agency services increased by 88.7% year-on-year, and the handling fee income of financial services increased by 23% year-on-year. The structural advantage of debt side deposits is still stable, accounting for more than 97% of the total liabilities, and the growth of savings deposits is good. 3. The asset quality remained excellent, there was no stock burden, and the new non-performing assets remained low. The low non-performing rate was flat at 0.82% month on month. Under the condition that the non-performing identification remained strict, the net generation of non-performing drugs was low and stable, which reflected that the new risk of the company was small to a certain extent. The margin of safety remained high, with a provision coverage rate of 418.6% in the fourth quarter.
Insufficient annual report: 1. The decline of interest margin dragged down the net interest income in the fourth quarter by – 0.4% month on month, and the annualized interest margin in a single quarter decreased by 4bp month on month. The asset side yield fell 1bp month on month. The debt side interest payment rate rose slightly 3bp month on month. 2. The cost income ratio increased by 6.7 percentage points to 76.3% year-on-year, mainly increasing science and technology investment and marketing expenditure. It is expected that the efficiency of subsequent cash exchange will be improved. The growth rate of agency savings fee was stable, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. Staff expenses increased by 15% year-on-year, and other items increased by 28% year-on-year. It was mainly affected by the expiration of the social insurance premium reduction policy enjoyed during the epidemic in the same period last year, as well as increasing the investment in talents in key fields, and increasing the investment in business marketing and information technology. The annual science and technology investment accounted for 3.15% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1%; The proportion of scientific and technological personnel increased to 2.76%.
Investment suggestion: Company 2021, 2022epb0 72X/0.65X； PE5. 70X / 4.98x (state-owned bank pb0.53x/0.49x; pe4.79x / 4.48x), Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) is a large retail commercial bank with the largest number of business outlets and the widest coverage in China. With distinctive retail characteristics, there is a deep moat on the liability side, and the asset quality remains at a stable level. The company has a wide retail customer base. With the construction of wealth management system, it is expected to develop unique advantages in the retail field. It is a large state-owned bank with differentiated characteristics. It is suggested to focus on it.
Note: according to the detailed data of the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the assumptions of key data such as scale growth, asset negative rate of return and credit cost, resulting in the adjustment of the profit forecast from 2022 to 2024 compared with the previous period. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 will be 360319/448603 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.1% / 11.7% (the previous value is 358258/398283 billion yuan, 11.4% / 11.2% respectively); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100188/114413 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.0% / 14.4% (the previous value was 88.965/99.458 billion yuan, 13.5% / 11.8% respectively).
Risk tip: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the operating performance is lower than expected.
