\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Core view
The annual performance is slightly lower than expected, which has a great impact on the impairment loss. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 50.57 billion yuan (- 10%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.457 billion yuan (+ 17%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.993 billion yuan (+ 8%). In the fourth quarter, the company’s single quarter revenue was 17.02 billion yuan (- 12%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 444 million yuan (- 50%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 140 million yuan (- 85%). The company’s annual performance was slightly lower than market expectations, mainly due to the credit and asset impairment of 1.1 billion yuan in the fourth quarter.
In the whole year, the external sales of fans reached 10.7gw, and the orders on hand reached 16.9gw. The company achieved 10.7gw (- 17%) of external sales of fans throughout the year, including 1.95gw (+ 305%) of offshore fans. The sales of onshore fans increased quarter by quarter, and the delivery peak of offshore fans was in the second and third quarters. By the end of 2021, the company had placed 16.9gw of orders, of which the order capacity of the company’s new product medium speed permanent magnet series was as high as 4.8gw. The company’s new products have been quickly recognized by the market.
The profitability of offshore wind turbines has increased significantly, and the cost advantage of medium speed permanent magnet products has become prominent. After the rush installation of onshore wind power in 2020, the unit gross profit of the company’s main onshore models returned to the normal level in 2021. The 2S and 3S / 4S models were 439 yuan / kW (+ 0%) and 387 yuan / kW (- 33%) respectively, and the unit gross profit of offshore fans reached 1741 yuan / kW (+ 41%), which fully benefited from the rush installation of offshore wind power. In 2021, the selling price of the company’s medium speed permanent magnet products is 1939 yuan / kW, which is significantly lower than that of other products of the company. It is expected that with the improvement and maturity of the product line, the cost still has a large room for decline.
The installed capacity of the power station exceeded 6Gw, and the post service business boosted the gross profit margin of the wind power service sector. By the end of 2021, the equity installed capacity of the company’s wind farm had reached 6.07gw (+ 11%), the annual power generation revenue was 5.33 billion yuan (+ 33%), and the equity installed capacity under construction was 2.6gw. In 2021, the company vigorously promoted the transformation of wind power service business, from operation and maintenance to asset management, reduced the volume of overseas EPC business, and increased the investment in post service business. The in transit capacity of post service reached 23gw, contributing revenue of 1.97 billion yuan (+ 21%), and boosting the gross profit margin of service sector to 12% (+ 15pct).
Risk warning: the new order capacity of the company’s fan is less than expected; The development progress of the power station is slow; Impairment risk arising from foreign exchange exposure; The overseas epidemic has a negative impact on international business.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “overweight” rating.
The company has a deep technical accumulation and talent reserve in the field of wind power machines. The huge installed capacity of equity power stations provides great impetus for the company’s performance. The change of the focus of wind power service business is expected to bring new momentum to the company. We raised the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.045/52.25/6.168 billion yuan (originally predicted to be 4.030/4.531 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023), with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.0/29.2/18.0% and diluted EPS of 0.96/1.24/1.46 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 13.5/10.5/8.9 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
