\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 015 Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) )
Event: on March 30, 2021, the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved an operating revenue of 18.895 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 97.07%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 670.47%.
The profit of 2021q4 decreased month on month. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 304 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69.72% and a month on month decrease of 21.25%.
The cost rises rapidly and the gross profit margin of coke declines. In 2021, the company produced 5.959 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 24.87%, and sold 5.947 million tons of coke, a year-on-year increase of 28.78%. The comprehensive selling price of coke was 2401 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%, and the sales cost of coke was 2324 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 57.3%. Due to the rapid growth of costs, the gross profit margin of coke business decreased by 5.26 percentage points to 3.42%.
The company’s chemical sales increased. In 2021, the company sold 223000 tons of tar (+ 28.3%), 67000 tons of crude benzene (+ 24.7%), 64000 tons of methanol (- 4.9%), 258000 tons of synthetic ammonia (47.9%), 14000 tons of LNG (28.6%) and 5.5% of BDO 10000 tons (+ 49.7%). In terms of price, the price of chemicals rose in an all-round way. The price of tar increased by 62.4% to 3201 yuan / ton, the price of crude benzene increased by 78.7% to 4320 yuan / ton, the price of synthetic ammonia increased by 37% to 2723 yuan / ton, the price of methanol decreased by 14.8% to 1185 yuan / ton, and the price of LNG increased by 35.5% to 4076 yuan / ton. BDO prices rose 174.3% year-on-year to 21676 yuan / ton.
The acquisition of coal assets of major shareholders is expected to expand profit space. In 2021, the company completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Hongneng coal industry and obtained a coking coal production capacity of 900000 tons / year (Hongneng coal industry plans to complete the nuclear increase procedures before March 31, 2022, and can legally organize production according to the production scale of 1.5 million tons / year after the nuclear increase is approved). Hongneng coal industry has relatively rich coal resource reserves. The coal produced is 1 / 3 coking coal, and the coal quality is mainly low sulfur coal, followed by ultra-low sulfur coal and medium sulfur coal, In the future, it is expected to stabilize the company’s raw coal supply and thicken the profit margin.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1475 million, RMB 1699 million and RMB 1.724 billion respectively. Based on the closing price on March 30, 2022, the corresponding PE is 9 times, 7 times and 7 times respectively, maintaining the rating of “prudent recommendation”.
Risk warning: the price of main products decreases; Safety production risk; The commissioning progress of the new project is less than expected.
