\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Matters:
The company issued the annual performance report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a total revenue of 75.68 billion yuan (+ 19.8%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.33 billion yuan (+ 23.0%), a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 5.98 billion yuan (24.3%), and a cash dividend of 1.7 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The loss of consolidated business expanded, and the performance of Japanese joint venture was stable. In 2021, the company sold 2.14 million complete vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, which is better than the industry average. Among them, the sales of GAC passenger cars, GAC ea’an, GAC Honda and GAC Toyota were 32.4/12.0/78.0828000 respectively. The company’s consolidated business loss (net profit – investment income) was 4.48 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year. The annual gross profit margin of sales was 7.9%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year. The performance of the two Japanese joint venture car companies was stable. In 2021, the investment income of the joint venture reached 11.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%.
The resilience of Liangtian is outstanding, and the new products boost the profit of the joint venture to a new level. In 2021, affected by the shortage of chips, the production and sales scale of mainstream joint venture car enterprises was greatly impacted, but the performance of the company’s two Japanese joint venture car enterprises was relatively stable. The sales volume of GAC Toyota increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and GAC Honda decreased slightly by 3.2% year-on-year, outperforming other joint venture car enterprises, showing relatively strong toughness. GAC Toyota launched the new MPV model Saina in October 2021, with strong single vehicle profitability. Two new SUV models fenglanda and Weisa will be launched in January 2022, and the pure electric vehicle bz4x will also be launched in 2022. GAC Honda’s new car model was launched in December 2021, and the pure electric vehicle e: NP1 is expected to be launched in the first half of 2022. We believe that the company’s two Japanese joint venture car companies have great profit flexibility, and a variety of new products will help the joint venture’s profit to a new level.
Ai’an promotes mixed reform and helps ai’an brand accelerate its take-off. GAC AEAN sold 120000 units in 2021, with a loss of about 1 billion. In March 2022, GAC ea’an implemented incentives for employees and GAC Research Institute personnel through non-public agreement capital increase, and introduced strategic investors, raising a total of 2.566 billion yuan. At present, the post investment valuation is about 39 billion yuan. GAC AEAN is about to start a round of financing and seek listing at the right time and place. According to the company, at present, the proportion of C-end customers of aian is close to 90%. We believe that the mixed reform will help stimulate the vitality of core employees and further enhance the brand competitiveness of ai’an. With the subsequent launch of ai’an’s high-value products, the sales volume and profitability of ai’an are expected to improve rapidly.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: in 2022, the automotive industry is still facing the pressure of chip shortage, and the rising cost of power battery has a certain impact on the profit of the company’s new energy vehicles. Based on this, we adjusted the company’s net profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 to 9.65 billion / 11.28 billion (the original net profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 was 10.71 billion / 12.19 billion), and the new company’s net profit forecast for 2024 to 12.48 billion yuan. At present, gac-e’an is a new energy brand in the first tier. The implementation of the mixed reform scheme will help to stimulate the vitality of the company. The two joint ventures of guangben and Guangfeng have strong toughness and large profit elasticity. The listing of a number of new models will further improve the profitability of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk tips: 1) the shortage of core parts such as chips will directly affect the company’s sales and market share; 2) The cost of raw materials in the upstream of new energy increased, and the end demand was restrained after the price rise of Eyan, resulting in the sales volume of Eyan falling short of expectations; 3) The profits of the joint ventures GAC Toyota and GAC Honda are less than expected, which will have a negative impact on the overall profitability of the group.
