\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Key investment points
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The performance accelerated upward, and PPOP achieved a high growth of nearly 20%. On the basis of the rise of interest margin and the high increase of non interest rate, the revenue of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 2021 continued to maintain the upward trend. At the same time, the growth rate of expenses slowed down and the year-on-year growth rate of profit before provision accelerated upward by 7 percentage points to 19%. Under the sound and excellent asset quality, the company continued to consolidate the provision basis, and the net profit increased by 21% year-on-year. 2. Q4 volume and price rose simultaneously, driving the net interest income to increase by 4.1% month on month. Since 1q21 bottomed out, the quarterly annualized interest rate spread has maintained a continuous upward trend, and the Q4 interest rate spread has increased by 2bp month on month. Among them, the asset side yield rose 1bp month on month, while the liability side interest payment rate remained relatively stable. On the one hand, it is expected that the upward return on the asset side is due to the structure. Retail loans have achieved not weak growth, and the proportion of retail loans and small and micro loans in the total loans continues to rise to a high level month on month. On the other hand, the marginal interest rate of new loans is expected to stabilize and rebound. 3. The demand for credit remained strong throughout the year, with nearly 40 billion new loans. The year-on-year growth rate of full caliber credit reached 26%, and the proportion of retail credit continued to increase. In 2021, the total credit increment inside and outside Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) balance sheet was 39.73 billion, an increase of 13 billion year-on-year, and the loans considered in the balance sheet were nearly 26% year-on-year. Q4 retail loans increased by 4.09 billion in a single quarter, of which nearly 90% were invested in small and micro loans; Retail loans account for 60% of the loan stock, and small and micro loans account for 40%, both at a historically high level. 3. Stable and excellent asset quality. The cumulative NPL rate of retail was stable from low to 0.81%, and the cumulative NPL rate of retail was down to 0.81%. The risk offset capacity continued to be consolidated, and the provision coverage rate in the fourth quarter was 532%. 4. The proportion of deposits and loans and revenue of non local branches rose to an all-time high. The contribution of non local branches in the province to new loans exceeded 70%, and the contribution of operating income accounted for nearly 50%.
Insufficient annual report: the degree of current deposit has decreased slightly. Mainly affected by the decline in the scale of corporate demand deposits, the proportion of demand deposits in total deposits decreased to 29.1%.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023epb0 95X/0.84X； PE7. 90x / 6.67x (rural commercial bank pb0.68x / 0.63x; pe7.02x / 6.35x), the company focuses on personal business loan, has excellent risk control, and continues to sink channels and broaden the market. The increase in the incremental contribution of loans and the proportion of credit in the inclusive financial pilot zone will continue to increase the company’s interest margin and drive the growth of the company’s revenue Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) business model is focused, the customer structure continues to be small and scattered, and the asset quality remains at an excellent level. With the stabilization and structural optimization of the interest rate of new loans, the interest margin has entered the improvement channel. It is recommended to pay active attention. The assumption of using key data such as cost leads to the adjustment of the profit forecast from 2022 to 2024 compared with the previous period. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 will be 9.354/11.254 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.2% / 20.3% (the previous value is 9.331/11.578 billion yuan, 21.7% / 24.1% respectively); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.605/3.086 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.1% / 18.5% (the previous value was 2.576/3.053 billion yuan, 18% / 18.5% respectively).
Risk tip: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, the company’s deposit competition is facing pressure, and the operating performance is less than expected.
