\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 398 Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) )
Key investment points
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The annual revenue maintained an upward trend. The net profit before provision was affected by the increase of Q4 expenses, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. Under the overall sound asset quality, the provision of the company was stable, and the growth rate of net profit achieved a high increase of 10% + in the whole year. 2. Q4 net interest income was + 2.7% month on month, mainly supported by the recovery of interest margin. The single quarter annualized interest rate spread rose 6BP to 2.08% month on month, mainly supported by the asset side. The return on assets in a single quarter rose 10bp to 3.51% month on month. It is expected that there are two factors: structure and interest rate. The proportion of total credit increased by 1.2pct, and the proportion of high-yield retail loans increased. At the same time, it is expected that the interest rate of new loans will stabilize and rebound. 3. Retail lending picked up in the second half of the year, with new retail sales accounting for 40.6%. New personal loans are mainly mortgage loans, accounting for 31.1% of new loans. The proportion of consumer business loans increased steadily compared with previous years, accounting for 9.0%; The proportion of new credit cards is stable at a low level. 4. The non-performing rate of asset quality continued to improve, and the provision increased steadily. In 2021, the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) non-performing rate was 1.42%, which continued to decline significantly by 10bp compared with the third quarter, and the stock risk continued to be cleared. The coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 9 percentage points to 206% month on month. 5. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose month on month. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 13.31%, 14.94% and 18.02% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 17bp, + 26bp and + 57bp.
Insufficient annual report: 1. The annualized cost income ratio of a single quarter rose year-on-year. Q4 single quarter annualized cost income ratio was 38.35%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points over the same period last year. The cumulative management fee increased by 14.8% year-on-year, which was wider than the 9.8% year-on-year in the third quarter.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023epb0 53X/0.49X； PE4. 63x / 4.39x (pb0.53x/0.49x of state-owned bank; pe4.84x / 4.55x), Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) solid fundamentals, stable asset quality, improved profitability, excellent management, increased investment in science and technology in recent years, continued deepening the strategy of the first personal financial bank, building a first-class comprehensive financial control platform, and optimistic about its continuous competitiveness and high moat.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 93158210107241094215 billion yuan (the previous value is 9622721052029 / – billion yuan), with a growth rate of 8.1% / 8.5% / 8.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 367057386633/406356 billion yuan (the previous value was 361967/380719 / – billion yuan), with a growth rate of 5.4% / 5.3% / 5.1%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 4.20% / 4.20% / 4.20%; The bond investment yield is 2.90% / 2.90% / 2.90%. 2. The company’s deposits are facing competitive pressure, and the interest payment rate is adjusted to 1.56% / 1.56% / 1.56%. 3. The asset quality of the company is good, the provision is stable, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 1.08% / 1.13% / 1.18%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
