\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Key points of announcement: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) achieved a revenue of 136405 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 32.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 4.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.55%. 2021q4 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) achieved a revenue of 45.607 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 10.79% / + 57.98% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.781 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 35.82% / + 25.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 550 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 71.93% / – 32.21% respectively.
Q4 performance is in line with our expectations, with a large year-on-year decline, mainly due to the pressure on upstream costs, the increase of employee compensation expenses and the provision of equity incentive expenses: 1) the product structure is continuously optimized to ensure the continuous growth of vehicle revenue. In 2021q4, the overall wholesale of Great Wall achieved 396900 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 7.89% / + 49.32% respectively, and the single vehicle revenue was 114900 yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 20.28% / + 5.80% respectively, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of tank Q4 sales, which was 8.06% and + 8.06% / 0.73% respectively. 2) In the year-on-year dimension, the decline of gross profit margin and the rise of expense rate affect the release of performance; In the month on month dimension, the decline in net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Q4 was mainly caused by asset / credit impairment loss. The gross profit margin of Q4 is 15.30%, with a month on month ratio of -2.96 / -2.00pct respectively. After excluding the factors of changes in accounting standards, the gross profit margin of Q4 is the same as that of Q3; In terms of expense ratio, Q4 sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 2.82% / 3.57% / 3.58% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.60 / + 1.05 / + 0.73pct respectively. The sales expense decreased under the influence of accounting standards, and the management / R & D expense ratio increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the accrual of equity incentive expenses and the increase of employee compensation expenses. The total employee cost in 2021h2 accounts for 11.40% of the revenue, with a month on month ratio of + 2.06 / + 3.32pct; In 2021, the production / Administration / R & D personnel were + 21% / + 77% / + 9% year-on-year respectively. With the rapid enrichment of brand matrix & the accelerated pace of global expansion, the scale of employees expanded rapidly. 3) Q4 non economic profit and loss was 1.231 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 51% / + 103%, mainly due to the increase of government subsidies. Q4 non operating income is 971 million yuan, mainly composed of government subsidies.
In the short term, with the alleviation of the shortage of chips, the Great Wall’s product matrix with Euler & Tank & WeiPai as the core is further expanded, the launch and delivery speed of new cars such as ballet cat / lightning cat / dream fulfillment / tank 700 is accelerated, and the high-end intelligent electric continues to be overweight, and the sales volume is expected to continue to break through. 2) In the long run, great wall takes the self-development of the whole stack of technology + product segmentation definition + continuous marketing innovation as its core competitiveness; The seven brands are all-round upward, focusing on leading breakthroughs in different markets and maintaining long-term competitiveness.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the rising price of bulk raw materials and the continuous impact of chip shortage, we lowered the expected net profit attributable to parent company from Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2022 to 2023 from 11 / 17.1 billion yuan to 9.11/14.7 billion yuan, and the expected net profit attributable to parent company in 2024 is 20 billion yuan, corresponding EPS is 0.99/1.59/2.16 yuan and PE is 27 / 17 / 13 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: chip shortage recovery is lower than expected; The epidemic control was lower than expected.
