\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 288 Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The growth rate of revenue increased quarter by quarter, and the annual revenue maintained a high growth rate of 9.3% year-on-year in 2021; Net profit before provision grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.4%; At the same time, the provision provision remained stable, and the net profit achieved double-digit growth of + 11.7% year-on-year. 2. Retail credit supply picked up in the second half of the year, with new retail sales accounting for nearly 46%. New personal loans are still mainly mortgage loans, up from 20 years, accounting for 29% of new loans. The proportion of consumer business loans increased and remained stable compared with previous years, accounting for 4.3%; The proportion of credit cards remained stable at 4.2%. 3. Net non interest income was + 30.7% year-on-year, driven by medium income and net other non interest income. The net fee income increased by 7.8% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of e-banking and agency services was bright. The year-on-year growth was 15.9% and 12.5% respectively, mainly due to the rapid growth of fund consignment business and online business income. Net other non interest income increased by 212.5% year-on-year, with the largest contribution to investment income, with an increase of 6.06 billion in Q4. 4. The non-performing rate decreased steadily quarter by quarter throughout the year. 21q4 Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) non performing rate was 1.43%, down 5bp from the third quarter, and the stock risk was gradually cleared. Concern loans accounted for 1.48%, down 9bp from the half year, and the non-performing pressure will be reduced in the future. The coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 11.7 percentage points to 300% month on month. 5. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose month on month. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 11.44%, 13.46% and 17.13% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 26bp, + 48bp and + 43bp.
Insufficient annual report: 1. The annualized cost income ratio of a single quarter rose year-on-year. Q4 single quarter annualized cost income ratio was 46.7%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points over the same period last year. The cumulative management fee increased by 14.0% year-on-year, which was wider than the 7.8% year-on-year in the third quarter.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023e Pb 0.48x/0.44x; PE 4.36x/4.15x (state-owned bank Pb 0.53x/0.49x; pe4.84x / 4.55x), Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) has generally sound fundamentals, cheap valuation, high dividend rate, excellent asset liability level, stable profitability, continuous clearing of stock risks and stable and good asset quality. It is recommended to pay active attention to it.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 747321 / 8168114 / 887768 million yuan (the previous value is 772780 / 858819 / – million), with a growth rate of 8.7% / 9.3% / 8.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 253982/270160/285606 billion yuan (the previous value was 232901/245742 / – billion), with a growth rate of 8.48% / 7.08% / 7.71%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 4.25% / 4.25% / 4.25%; The bond investment yield is 3.10% / 3.10% / 3.10%. 2. The company’s deposit cost stabilized and adjusted the deposit interest rate to 1.57% / 1.57% / 1.57%. 3. The asset quality of the company is stable and good, the provision provision is stable, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 1.05% / 1.08% / 1.11%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
