\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 801 Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the total operating revenue was 32.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Among them, Q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 10 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The company plans to distribute cash dividends at 1.08 yuan / share (including tax).
The volume and price of cement and clinker increased and fell, and the concrete and aggregate business became a new growth point. (1) The annual revenue of cement and clinker business was 25.674 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, of which the sales volume was 75.27 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%. We calculated that the average sales price per ton was 341 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13 yuan. The decline of sales volume is mainly affected by the decline of national cement demand. (2) The annual revenue of concrete and aggregate business was 3.175 billion yuan and 2.054 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.9% and 73.6%, thanks to the rapid expansion of production capacity. (3) Q4 revenue side increased by 11.9% year-on-year, 13.7pct faster than Q3 year-on-year growth, mainly due to the large-scale dual control of energy consumption in the South and the rise of fuel cost in September, resulting in a large year-on-year increase in cement price, offsetting the impact of the decline in cement demand growth in the same period.
The gross profit margin fell by 4.5pct to 34.1% year-on-year in the same caliber, mainly due to the sharp rise in coal prices, which pushed up the cost of cement and achieved remarkable results in cost control. (1) The gross profit margin of cement and clinker business in 2021 was 32.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8pct in the same caliber, corresponding to a gross profit of 112 yuan per ton and a year-on-year decrease of 15 yuan in the same caliber. We estimate that the cost per ton of cement in 2021 will be 227 yuan and an increase of 25 yuan in the same caliber, mainly due to the increase of 25 yuan in the cost of single ton of fuel and power. (2) The cost rate of the company in 2021 is 9.9%, and the corresponding cost per ton of cement is 43 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pct/2 yuan respectively. The net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 17.9%, corresponding to a comprehensive net profit of 77 yuan per ton of cement, a year-on-year decrease of 4 yuan. Quarterly, Q4 single quarter management / R & D / financial expense ratio was – 1.0 / + 0.0 / – 1.3pct year-on-year, net interest rate was – 0.4pct year-on-year, and Q3 increased by 3.2pct to 19.1% month on month.
The asset liability ratio increased year-on-year due to the expansion of capital expenditure and the decline of operating cash flow. The cash paid by the company for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets in 2021 was 6.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.5%. The net cash flow from the company’s operating activities decreased by 9.6% year-on-year to 7.595 billion yuan. The company’s asset liability ratio at the end of 2021 was 44.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7pct and a month on month increase of 1.6pct compared with the end of the third quarter of 2021.
The cement business is expected to be repaired at a low level, and the aggregate and concrete business is expected to expand rapidly. It is expected to continue high growth in 2022. In the medium term, the demand for cement is expected to stabilize and recover, the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and the steady growth will continue. After the short-term epidemic control is eased, the physical demand is expected to be realized gradually. The Eastern Hubei market is expected to benefit from the resilience of the cement market along the river, the significant strengthening of peak shifting self-discipline in the southwest, and the low profit of the cement business in 2022 is expected to be repaired. The aggregate and concrete business benefited from the release of production capacity in 2021. The planned sales volume of the company’s two products in 2022 increased by 100% and 124% year-on-year respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 5.9 billion yuan, 6.7 billion yuan and 7.2 billion yuan respectively. The closing price on March 30 corresponds to the P / E ratio of 6.9, 6.0 and 5.6 times, and the “overweight” rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: the real estate credit risk is out of control, the epidemic situation exceeds expectations, and the competition and cooperation attitude of the industry deteriorates.
