\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 154.2014861354 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1% / 84.5% / 79%. Excluding the impact of kidiliz stripping, the revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, still decreased by 5% compared with 19 years, the total profit increased by 20% year-on-year and still decreased by 20% compared with 19 years. The performance met the expected period. Among them, non economic mainly includes non current asset disposal loss of 43 million yuan, government subsidy of 117 million yuan, capital occupation fee charged from credit franchisees of 18 million yuan, investment income of 61 million yuan, dividend income of 20 million yuan and income tax impact of – 42 million yuan. 21q4’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were 5.399544 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% / 8% and a slight increase in the month on month decrease (21q3’s revenue decreased by 5.7%). Cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share, dividend rate of 91% and dividend rate of 8%.
Analysis and judgment:
Senma accelerated the closing of stores in the second half of the year, and Bala restarted the opening of stores in the second half of the year. In 2021, the revenue of Senma’s main brand / barabarabara was RMB 5.027 billion / 10.272 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1% / 15% and – 23% / 7% compared with 19 years. Among them, the number of main brand Senma / barabarabara stores was 2823 / 5744, with a year-on-year net opening of – 268 / 110, with a growth rate of – 9% / 2%. In the second half of the year, there was a net increase of – 305 / 139 stores in Senma / barabarabara. Senma accelerated the closing of stores and barabarabara restarted the opening of stores.
After joining the net closed stores, the revenue under the direct net expansion stores still decreased by 3%. From the perspective of different channels, the direct / franchise / online / joint venture / other revenue was 14 / 68.2 / 64.6 / 6.21 / 120 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 30% / 2% / 11% / – 1% / 3%. Excluding the impact of kidiliz stripping, the revenue growth rate was – 3% / 8% / 13% / 42% / – respectively. In 2021, the total number of stores will be 8567, with a net decrease of 158: the number of direct / franchise / associated stores will be 781 / 7412 / 374 respectively, with a net opening of 100 / – 281 / 23, with a growth rate of 15% / – 4% / 7%; It is estimated that the efficiency of Direct stores / shipment of single franchise stores / joint stores is 179 / 92 / 1.66 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 15% / 12% / 34%. In terms of further splitting, the single store area of direct / franchise / associated stores was 221 / 181 / 248m2 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 1% / – 3% / 88%, and the average efficiency of Direct stores was 8107 yuan / m2 / year, with a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
Gross profit margin returned to 2019 level. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 42.58%, increased by 2.24pct year-on-year, and recovered to the 19-year level. Among them, the gross profit margin of Senma main brand / barabarabara was 40.13% / 43.74% respectively, and increased by 4.25/1.3pct year-on-year. We analyzed that the increase of the gross profit margin of Senma main brand came from the increase of the price increase rate. From the perspective of channels, the gross profit margin of direct / franchise / online / joint venture was 66.45% / 40% / 37.36% / 70.66% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8 / 0 / 5 / 10PCT. The gross profit margin of 21q4 company was 41.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7pct and a month on month increase of 0.3pct.
The increase of gross profit margin, the decrease of management expenses and the decrease of asset impairment losses contributed to the increase of net profit margin. In 2021, the company’s net interest rate was 9.63%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.41pct and 1.7pct compared with 19 years. In 2021, the rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 21.93% / 4.03% / 2.06% / – 0.67% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.1 / – 1.4 / 0.1 / – 0.2pct. The decrease of the rate of management expenses was mainly due to the decrease of wages and salaries, the decrease of office, leasing, depreciation and other expenses caused by strict cost control, and the impact of service outsourcing fees caused by the sale of kidiliz in 2020. The asset impairment loss / income in 21 years was 2.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.3pct, which was mainly due to the decline of inventory falling price reserves and the high base of withdrawing intangible asset impairment loss and investment real estate impairment loss totaling 81 million in 2020. The income tax rate of 21 years was 23%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4pct, which was mainly due to the continuous profits of some subsidiaries and the new recognition of deferred income tax assets. The net interest rate of 21q4 was 10%, basically unchanged year-on-year and increased by 2pct month on month.
Inventories remain under pressure. At the end of 2021, the inventory was 4.024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61% and a month on month balance of 21q3. The inventory turnover days were 133 days, with a year-on-year increase of 2 days, and the inventory falling price / inventory was 10%. The turnover days of accounts receivable were 33 days, a year-on-year decrease of 7 days, and the turnover days of accounts payable were 100 days, a year-on-year increase of 16 days, mainly due to the increase of inventory procurement. The operating cash flow was RMB 2.076 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 53%. The higher operating cash flow than net profit was mainly due to the provision for asset impairment.
Investment advice
In the short term, we estimate that Q1’s single digit revenue will decline under the influence of the epidemic, and the annual net profit is expected to increase by about 10%. In the medium and long term, (1) according to the announcement, the market share of barabara is still steadily increasing, reaching 7.1% in 21 years, and 5.1pct higher than the second place; At present, balabalabala has formed a product line for infants and young children, middle and old children, shoes and household products, and is expected to launch high-end series in 22 years; (2) SEMA has been transformed and adjusted for more than two years, and the groups targeted during the epidemic are more affected. It is expected to usher in transformation dividends after the epidemic in the future. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the income of 22 / 23 years was reduced from 19.3/21.7 billion yuan to 16.8/18.9 billion yuan, the new 24-year income was 20.9 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent was reduced from 1.83/2.21 billion yuan to 1.631/1.895 billion yuan, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the parent was 2.142 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS was reduced from 0.68/0.82 yuan to 0.61/0.7 yuan, the new 24-year EPS was 0.8 yuan, the closing price on March 30, 2022 was 6.65 yuan, and the corresponding 22 / 23 / 24pe was 11 / 9 / 8x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of epidemic development; Online growth rate is lower than expected risk; Systemic risk.
