\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 68 Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 32.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 653 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.0%; Deducting non net profit of 568 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.94%.
The performance growth was slightly lower than expected. The company's operating revenue in 2021 was 32.7 billion yuan (yoy-2.3%). The net profit attributable to the parent company was 653 million yuan (yoy-16.0%). Excluding the influence of Guizhou Xin'an and Xifei Aluminum Co., Ltd. set out at the end of 2020, the company's operating revenue decreased by about 0.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by about 14.7% year-on-year. In a single quarter, Q4 achieved revenue of 9.592 billion yuan (yoy-11.5%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 45 million yuan (yoy-73.7%).
1) the performance growth was lower than expected. In addition to the decline in revenue, it was also affected by two factors. First, the accounts receivable in the current period increased by 371.1% year-on-year, and the provision for credit impairment loss was 159 million yuan, an increase of 86 million yuan over the same period of the previous year; The second was the increase in short-term loans, with interest expenses of 151 million yuan, an increase of 77 million yuan over the same period last year.
2) among the main subsidiaries, benefiting from the reduction of related party transactions and the increase of downstream demand, Shaanxi Aircraft Industry Co., Ltd. and Xi'an Aircraft Industry Co., Ltd. realized revenue of 13.684 billion and 19.04 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.84% and 18.4%.
Management efficiency continued to improve, and R & D investment increased steadily. In 2021, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 7.5%, a slight decrease of 0.3pct over the same period. The period cost rate is 4.7%, basically the same as that in 2020. Among them, the management expense was 824 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, the management expense rate was 2.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5pct, and the R & D expense increased by 10.6%, which is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future.
In 2022, the maximum limit of related deposits will be significantly adjusted, and large orders are expected to be implemented. In 2021, the total amount of transactions actually occurred between the company and related parties was 1.492 million yuan, accounting for 91% of the annual estimate. In 2022, the company expects to sell goods and provide services to related parties totaling 804 million yuan, an increase of 56.6% over the actual amount in 2021; The purchase of goods and services from related parties were 16.160 billion yuan and 1.288 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 21.7% and 13.8% respectively. In addition, the company adjusted the maximum deposit limit of 14 billion yuan on the aviation industry financial day in 2022 to 75 billion yuan, or indicates that large long-term cooperative orders will be implemented in 2022.
There are enough orders on hand, and the future growth is still expected. The amount of revenue corresponding to the performance obligations that have signed contracts but have not been performed or completed in 2021 is RMB 12.472 billion, of which RMB 10.78 billion will be recognized in 2022, accounting for 33.0% of the revenue in 2021, and the future growth is still expected.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 983 million yuan, 1.280 billion yuan and 1.598 billion yuan, EPS will be 0.36 yuan, 0.46 yuan and 0.58 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 84x, 64x and 52X. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the valuation advantage of the company is not obvious, but the company has sufficient orders on hand, and the expectation of large orders landing is strong. The superposition of scale effect resonates, so it is optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the volume of military products in the 14th five year plan is lower than expected, and the risk of gross profit margin decline.
