\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company released the main financial data of 2021 and the announcement of main business conditions in the first quarter of 2022 on March 28, and released the annual report of 2021 on March 30. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 109464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 33.1 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%.
Comments:
The company ended successfully in 2021 and made a successful start in 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 109464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. In 2021, the company's total operating revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, achieving a successful conclusion. In a single quarter, the performance growth of 2021q4 was faster than that of the first three quarters. In 2021q4, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.05%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.06%. Benefiting from the impact of Feitian's large volume and new products on the market, as well as the direct price increase of some products and the expansion of the proportion of direct sales channels, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 33.1 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of about 18% year-on-year; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%. It has made a successful start in 2022. The company disclosed in its 2021 annual report that it will strive to achieve a year-on-year increase of about 15% in total operating revenue in 2022. The good start of the first quarter has laid the foundation for the company's annual performance.
Maotai liquor and series liquor are driven by two wheels, and the direct marketing channels are developing rapidly. By category, the company implements the strategy of double wheel drive of Maotai liquor and series liquor. While Maotai liquor contributes to the performance increment, series liquor has achieved rapid growth. In 2021, the company's Maotai liquor achieved an operating revenue of 93.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.18%; The operating revenue of series liquor was 12.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%. In terms of sub channels, the company has continued to increase the layout of direct channels in recent years. Direct channels have developed rapidly in 2021, and the proportion has further increased. In 2021, the company's wholesale agency business achieved an operating revenue of 82.030 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%; The direct selling business achieved an operating revenue of 24.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.49%, and the proportion of the company's direct selling business increased to 22.66%. According to the official account of the company, the I platform will be officially launched on the end of March this year. Consumers can make an appointment to purchase the tiger year Moutai, Moutai 1935 and rare goods Moutai on the platform. The test run phase will not sell the "flying Apsaras" temporarily. "Moutai" The launch of the company's e-commerce platform has promoted the reform of channel structure. In the future, we need to pay more attention to the relevant wine products and supply on the e-commerce platform.
In 2021, the company's profitability increased steadily. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 91.54%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.13 percentage points. Among them, Maotai achieved a gross profit margin of 94.03%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year. Benefiting from the upgrading of product structure and the price increase of products, the gross profit margin of series liquor has increased significantly. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 73.69%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of expense structure, the company's sales expense rate in 2021 was 2.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; The management fee rate was 7.78%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year. Under the combined effect of gross profit margin and expense rate, the net profit margin of the company in 2021 was 52.47%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, and the profitability was further improved.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2022 / 2023 will be 48.88 yuan and 57.49 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation will be 35 times and 30 times respectively. The company's total operating revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time in 2021 and made a good start in 2022. As the leader of the Baijiu industry, the strategy of Moutai and series wine is two wheel drive clear, and the expansion of direct selling channel is expected to raise the product ton price. With the release of production capacity, the company has room for further improvement in volume and price. Meanwhile, the newly appointed chairman has strong confidence in the company's reform, the market has high expectations for the company's reform, and the company's performance is expected to make progress while maintaining stability. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. Product upgrading is less than expected, direct sales channel expansion is less than expected, capacity release is less than expected, food safety problems, macroeconomic impact, etc.
