\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
The company released its 2021 annual report, which achieved a total operating revenue of 216.14 billion yuan (+ 38.0%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 3.05 billion yuan (- 28.1%); Earnings per share is 1.06 yuan. Among them, 21q4 sold 287000 vehicles (+ 81.9%), achieved an operating revenue of 70.95 billion yuan (+ 37.6%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 600 million yuan (- 26.6%), slightly lower than expected. The company has significant technical and cost advantages, and the new product cycle is expected to help improve sales and performance. In addition, the spin off and listing of semiconductor business is progressing smoothly, which is good for value revaluation. We expect the company's earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 2.93 yuan, 4.22 yuan and 5.65 yuan respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
Q4 sales increased rapidly and short-term performance was under pressure. In 2021, the company's car sales reached 721000 (+ 82.8%), significantly outperforming the industry and driving revenue growth of 38.0%. The annual gross profit margin was 13.0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.4pct, which is expected to be mainly due to the change of product structure and the rise in the price of raw materials. The revenue increased significantly, the expense rates of sales, management and R & D decreased by 0.4pct, 0.1pct and 1.1pct respectively, the financial expense decreased by 1.6pct (mainly due to the decrease of interest bearing liabilities), and the expense rates of four items decreased by 3.2pct. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.05 billion yuan (- 28.1%), which is expected to be mainly due to the decline of Byd Company Limited(002594) electronic profit and the decrease of income from epidemic prevention materials. Despite the impact of chip shortage, Q4 sold 287000 vehicles (+ 81.9%), including 266000 new energy vehicles (+ 238.0%), driving revenue growth of 37.6%; The gross profit margin and four expense rates decreased by 3.5pct and 1.9pct respectively, deducting 370 million (- 20.1%) of the net profit not attributable to the parent company, which is expected to be mainly due to the decrease of profit contribution and impairment provision of Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics.
Technology and cost advantages are significant, and the new product cycle helps to improve sales and performance. The company has worked in the field of new energy for many years and created a strong technical advantage. Blade battery has the advantages of good safety and high bulk density. It will be fully applied to the company's new energy models in 2021, driving high sales growth. DMI is a hybrid technology based on electricity, which has multiple advantages such as fast, economical, quiet, smooth and green. The power loss and fuel consumption are as low as 3.8l/100km. In addition, PHEV technology can enjoy preferential policies such as purchase tax reduction and new energy vehicle license sector, which is expected to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles. After the launch of DMI models such as Qin plus, song plus and Tang, the products are in short supply. The collection cycle of some models is as high as 4-6 months. The subsequent capacity improvement will promote the growth of sales. The company released the exclusive platform E3 0. A brand-new body structure, electronic and electrical architecture and vehicle operating system have been built, which has many advantages such as intelligence, efficiency and safety. Many models such as dolphins, sea lions and seals are expected to sell well. On blade battery, DMI, E3 With the support of leading technologies such as 0, the sales volume of the company's new energy vehicles reached 563000 in 2021, and the leading position is stable. The new product cycle will continue in 2022, and the self supply of batteries and other parts will bring great cost advantages. The annual sales volume may exceed 1.5 million, and the significant improvement of capacity utilization is expected to bring high performance growth.
The spin off and listing of semiconductor business is progressing smoothly, which is good for value revaluation. Under the trend of new energy and intelligence, the market space of automotive semiconductor in China will grow rapidly to tens of billions of yuan Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductor has a whole industry chain of integrated operation including chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging test and downstream application. It is an independent and controllable vehicle specification level IGBT leading manufacturer in China and has broad prospects in the future. The company started the semiconductor spin off in 2020. At present, the listing application has been approved by Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In addition, the company has advanced technology in the fields of power battery (including energy storage capacity of 37.9gwh in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 200.1%), motor electric control and other fields. The development of external customers is smooth, and it will also be split and listed in the future, which is conducive to the improvement of the company's valuation.
Valuation
Taking into account the impact of high sales growth and other factors, we adjusted the earnings forecast and estimated that the earnings per share in 20222024 will be 2.93 yuan, 4.22 yuan and 5.65 yuan respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
1) the sales volume is lower than expected; 2) The gross profit margin of new energy fell; 3) Shortage or price increase of raw materials.
