\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.78 ~ 1.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90% ~ 110%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 1.79 ~ 1.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90% ~ 110%.
The accelerated volume of HPV vaccine drives the rapid growth of the company's traditional vaccine business. According to the batch data released by the Central People's Procuratorate and our survey data, Q1 company approved 12 batches of moshadong tetravalent HPV vaccine in 2022, with an estimated batch volume of 2.3 ~ 2.5 million; Twenty batches of nine valent HPV vaccine have been approved and issued, and the expected batch issuance volume is 4.2 ~ 4.5 million. We expect that the overall sales volume of HPV vaccine of 2022q1 company will increase by 70% ~ 90% year-on-year, realizing rapid growth. At present, the overall supply of HPV vaccine in China is still in short supply, and the penetration rate is still low. The company's products have more protective serotypes. Compared with domestic bivalent HPV vaccine, it has obvious advantages in the first and second tier cities. It is expected that the overall sales volume is expected to be more than 25 million in 2022. At present, the domestic tetravalent / nine valent HPV vaccine is still in the clinical stage and is expected to be listed successively after 2025, which has little impact on the competitive pattern of the company.
EC + micro card tuberculosis matrix mainly focuses on the student physical examination market and is expected to increase rapidly. The company's first EC diagnostic reagent + microcard vaccine has won the National Award in 27 provinces (21 provinces of the appropriate card), and the market space of China's TB control is still huge. In early 2019, the Ministry of education and Wei Jian issued the recommended health industry standard "guidelines for infectious disease prevention and control in ordinary universities". Although the current detection method is still based on tuberculin skin test, considering its high false positive rate, we believe that EC diagnostic reagent is expected to become the mainstream means of tuberculosis screening. According to the grassroots research data, the positive rate of tuberculosis in China passing the company's Yika reagent screening is about 10% ~ 20%. At the same time, the company actively promotes the transformation and sales of micro card vaccine among the positive population. It is expected that the tuberculosis product matrix is expected to achieve an income of about 800 million yuan this year.
The implementation of the employee stock ownership plan has given the company sufficient impetus for long-term development. As of the closing on March 18, 2022, the company's employee stock ownership plan for common prosperity (2022) has purchased a total of 29.1 million shares of the company's shares through the secondary market (centralized bidding trading and block trading), accounting for about 1.82% of the company's total share capital. The transaction amount is 2917741000 yuan, and the transaction price range is 100.00 yuan / share to 139.39 yuan / share. This plan is the employee stock ownership plan with the largest number of people and the largest amount of financing implemented by the company since its listing, which once again encourages employees' work enthusiasm and subjective initiative, and adds another shot in the arm for the healthy development of the company in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Regardless of the sales increment of covid-19 vaccine, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.6 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan and 7.8 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 47, 33 and 28 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 vaccine volume is less than expected, the risk of research and development failure and the risk of product price reduction.
