\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601)
Core financial data: 6012021 net profit attributable to parent company: 26.834 billion yuan, yoy + 9.2%; The embedded value of the group is 498.3 billion yuan, yoy + 8.5%; The weighted average roe was 12.2%, yoy-0.4pct. The dividend yoy-23.1% to 1.0 yuan per share is expected to compensate the second generation phase II project, resulting in short-term pressure on the dividend.
Bancassurance channel contributes to the increment of new life insurance orders, and the effect of transformation remains to be seen for some time. In 2021, the nbvyoy of life insurance was 24.8% to 13.412 billion yuan, which was mainly affected by the sharp decline of nbvm (yoy-15.4pcts to 23.5%). Restart the bancassurance strategy to boost the new single premium yoy + 17.1%, of which the new single premium yoy + 331.3% in bancassurance channels; The premium yoy-0.2% of new orders of individual insurance channels benefited from a good start, and the regular payment of new orders of individual insurance increased by 11.6% year-on-year. The scale of agent team decreased and the production capacity increased. In 2021, the average monthly manpower of the company was yoy-29.9% to 525000, and the monthly per capita first year insurance business / monthly per capita first year commission income was 4638 / 791 yuan, yoy + 42.3% / + 16.3%. We judge that the increase of per capita production capacity is mainly affected by the reduction of team size, and the effect of life insurance transformation remains to be seen for some time.
The comprehensive cost rate of property insurance is effectively controlled. In 2021, the company’s property insurance premium yoy + 3.3%, and the comprehensive cost rate was 99.0%, which was flat year-on-year. In terms of subdivided products: 1) auto insurance premium yoy-4.0%, comprehensive cost ratio yoy + 0.8pct to 98.7%, and customer penetration and renewal rate have been improved; 2) Non vehicle premium yoy + 16.9%, health insurance / liability insurance / agricultural insurance / guarantee insurance premium yoy + 37.3% / + 24.6% / + 19.8% / + 8.5%, comprehensive cost rate yoy-11.9pcts / – 2.6pcts / – 0.3pct / – 3.0pcts, except health insurance (COR 101.9%).
The investment performance was stable and slightly decreased. In 2021, the company’s net / total return on investment was 4.5% / 5.7%, yoy-0.2pct / – 0.2pct respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the scale of investment assets was yoy + 10.0% to 1.81 trillion yuan. The proportion of fixed income / equity investment assets is 75.7% / 21.2%, yoy-2.6pcts / + 2.4pcts respectively.
Investment suggestions: the company has firm determination in life insurance reform and clear landing measures; The leading advantage of property insurance is expected to continue to highlight. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be yoy + 1.9% / + 10.1% / + 25.5%. The current stock price corresponds to 0.40 times of PEV in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: interest rate risk, market fluctuation risk, life insurance reform is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
