\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.15 billion yuan (year-on-year + 16%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 60 million yuan (a loss of 500 million yuan in the same period of 20 years), a deduction of non attributable net profit of 10 million yuan (a loss of 530 million yuan in the same period of 20 years), and a loss reduction of 550 million yuan. By quarter, Q1 ~ Q4 achieved revenue of RMB 1.27/18.7/15.8/1.43 billion respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.8/2.5/0.6 / – 80 million respectively.
In terms of business, the operating revenue of the hotel is 4.4 billion yuan (year-on-year + 13%), the management revenue of the hotel is 1.5 billion yuan (year-on-year + 27%), and the business revenue of the scenic spot is 300 million yuan (year-on-year + 27%); The net loss of the corresponding Hotel segment was 80 million yuan, which decreased year-on-year, and the profit of the scenic spot business was 90 million yuan, which recovered to 70% in the same period of 19 years.
RevPAR in 2021 was 119 yuan (year-on-year + 20.2%), with a recovery rate of 75% compared with 19 years. In 2021, the average house price of the company was 192 yuan (year-on-year + 11.6%, compared with 96% in 19 years), and the OCC was 61.8% (year-on-year + 4.4pp, compared with – 17.3pp in 19 years). Among them, RevPAR of economy hotels is 104 yuan (year-on-year + 23.4%, 76% in 19 years); RevPAR of medium and high-end hotels is 158 yuan (year-on-year + 16.8%, 69% in 19 years); RevPAR of light management hotel is 76 yuan (year-on-year + 1.2%, 75% in 19 years).
It is planned to open 1800 ~ 2000 new stores in 2022 to accelerate the sinking market layout. As of December 31, 2021, the company has 5915 stores in China, including 1384 medium and high-end brands (accounting for 23%), including 658 home business trips and 281 home selection. Franchise stores account for 87.3% of all hotels opened. The proportion of brand revenue of medium and high-end hotels increased from 42.3% in 2020 to 46.9% in 2021. In 2021, 945 Hotels with medium light management mode were newly opened, accounting for 67.3% of the number of stores opened in the whole year. By the end of 2021, the number of members of the company had exceeded 133 million, and the number of nights between 21q4 own channels accounted for 75.7%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. During the epidemic period, the wine management group expanded against the trend and concentrated its share to the head, which helps to standardize the supply of the industry; The company’s product structure is upgraded to medium and high-end to improve the profitability of single stores. In the post epidemic period, the hotel industry is expected to open an upward revenue cycle driven by house prices under the new pattern. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 500, 910 and 1.29 billion, corresponding to 54, 30 and 21 times of PE. Maintain a “hold” rating.
Risk tip: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of travel demand is blocked, the macro-economy is down, and the cost of hotels is rising.
