\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 109.46 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 52.46 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%. In 2021q4, the total operating revenue was 32.41 billion yuan, an increase of 14.0% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.19 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1%; Meanwhile, at the end of 2021, the company’s contractual liabilities were 12.72 billion yuan. The growth rate of revenue and net profit was slightly faster than the guidelines of the early express report.
The volume and price of Maotai liquor increased steadily, and the structure of series liquor was significantly optimized. In terms of Maotai liquor, the volume and price increased steadily in 2021, including 36000 tons of sales, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; The price per ton was 2.578 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. In terms of series liquor, in recent years, the company has made great efforts in series liquor, achieved favorable sales through channels, and significantly improved the visibility of products. In 2021, the effect of structural optimization and adjustment was obvious, and the sales volume of series liquor was 30000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%; The price per ton was 417000 yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 24.2%.
The performance of direct sales channels is bright, and it is expected to contribute to the growth initiative of Maotai liquor. In terms of sub channels, in 2021, the company’s direct sales channel revenue increased by 81.5% year-on-year, accounting for 22.7%. The direct sales ton price was 4.189 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year. The direct sales ton price has reached 1.6 times the overall ton price of Maotai liquor; The revenue of distribution channels is basically flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase of direct sales volume and ton price will be the active energy for the growth of Maotai liquor in 2021. In addition, by the end of 2021, the company had 2089 distributors in China, with little change month on month, and the distribution system tended to be stable.
Comprehensive reforms were gradually implemented, and new year’s goals accelerated growth. Since the new chairman took office in August 2021, the products and channels have made frequent moves. On the product side, clarify the whole product line of Maotai, focus on “fist” products, and launch Maotai 1935 and rare Maotai; On the channel side, cancel the unpacking policy, implement the marketization of Maotai price, take multiple measures to stabilize the rating, reduce the price difference of boxes / bulk bottles, launch new e-commerce channels recently, and supplement the short board of Maotai C-end channel. In 2022, the target growth rate of the company’s revenue is about 15%, and the company has made a successful start in the first quarter. With the effect of the company’s comprehensive reform, the new Maotai is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the stability of the company’s growth and the upward space of ton price under the endorsement of strong brand strength. We look forward to the subsequent improvement of the company’s operation level and the improvement of the company’s development momentum and governance. We slightly revised the original profit forecast and introduced the 2024 forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 61.9/72/83.4 billion yuan (the original forecast is 60.9/70.8 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 18% / 16% / 16%. The current share price corresponds to PE of 35x / 30x / 26x from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is down, and the effect of channel reform is less than expected; The wholesale price fluctuates greatly.
