\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 106.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 52.46 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3% at the same time, and the profit side was slightly higher than about 52 billion yuan disclosed in the previous performance express, an increase of about 11.3% at the same time; In 2021, the gross profit margin was 91.54%, with an increase of 0.13 PCT; In 2021, the sales expense rate was 2.50%, decreased by 0.1pct, the management expense rate was 7.78%, increased by 0.8pct, and the business tax rate was 14.41%, decreased by 0.22pct. Contract liabilities at the end of the period were 12.718 billion yuan, a decrease of 604 million yuan. Business target for 2022: the total operating revenue will increase by about 15% over the previous year, and the capital construction investment will be 6.969 billion yuan.
The volume and price of direct sales channels rose simultaneously, and the wholesale channels remained stable. In 2021, the direct selling revenue was 24.029 billion yuan, an increase of 81.49%, accounting for 22.66%, an increase of 8.69 PCT, the direct selling sales volume was 5735.7 tons, an increase of 45.87%, and the direct selling ton price was 4.1894 million yuan / ton, an increase of 24.42%; In 2021, the revenue from wholesale channels was 82.03 billion yuan, an increase of 0.55% at the same time. The wholesale sales volume was 6070299 tons, an increase of 0.96% at the same time. The wholesale ton price was 1.3513 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.41% at the same time. The proportion and structure of direct sales channels increased the company’s comprehensive ton price, and the distribution channels remained basically stable. In 2021, the company’s Maotai liquor revenue reached 93.465 billion yuan, an increase of 10.18%, the sales volume reached 36300 tons, an increase of 5.68%, the ton price was 2.5775 million yuan / ton, an increase of 4.26%, and the Maotai liquor gross profit margin was 94.03%, an increase of 0.04 PCT. In 2021, the output of Maotai base liquor will be 56500 tons, an increase of 12.42% at the same time, and the production capacity will be gradually released; In 2021, the revenue of the company’s series of wines reached 12.595 billion yuan, an increase of 26.06%, the sales volume reached 30200 tons, an increase of 1.46%, the ton price was 417400 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.25%, the gross profit margin of series wines was 73.69%, and an increase of 3.55 PCT.
Maotai continued to promote marketing reform, and the “I Maotai” e-commerce platform was launched. Ding Xiongjun, the new chairman of Maotai Group, has continuously promoted the reform of marketing system since taking office in September 2021. At the 2022 market work meeting of Maotai Group, based on the “five new” changes of Maotai market environment in terms of new trends, new groups, new scenes, new retail and new products, Ding Xiongjun, the Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Maotai Group, put forward the “five in one marketing law”, which proposed to implement the digital marketing law and speed up the completion of the new retail weakness, Build and improve the digital marketing platform to inject new momentum into Maotai marketing. Maotai will promote the reform of online digital platform. The “I Maotai” digital marketing app was launched on March 31, which may help to further strengthen the ability of channel management and control. Recently, pumao’s wholesale price has fallen sharply, mainly due to the short-term increase on the supply side, the off-season consumption on the demand side, the expectation of Maotai’s marketing reform and so on. Although the short-term wholesale price has fallen rapidly, the low price general flying has low liquidity. Later, with the implementation of Maotai marketing reform and the gradual easing of the epidemic, Maotai’s just needed consumption scene is restored, and Maotai’s price is expected to stabilize and gradually pick up.
Investment suggestion: the company’s “14th five year plan” started smoothly. In 2022, the company proposed the “five in one marketing method”, which will focus on promoting the reform of digital marketing and help further strengthen the channel management and control ability. Based on the 2021 annual report, it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 126.8/157.1/172.9 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 61.76/84.7 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 36 / 28 / 26x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) there is a risk that the reform of the new deal will be blocked, affecting the supply and demand structure and the rhythm of product supply; 2) Limited risks of industrial policies such as capacity expansion and taxation; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
