\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Event: on March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.08%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 935 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.22%.
The performance continued to be strong and continued to shine after excluding the impact of exchange. In 2021, the revenue increased by 56.13% year-on-year after excluding the exchange rate difference. On a quarterly basis, the operating revenue of 2021q4 was 1.716 billion yuan (year-on-year, the same below, + 60.8%). Excluding the exchange rate difference, the year-on-year increase was + 66.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 374 million yuan (+ 73.45%), showing an accelerated growth trend. We expect that it is mainly due to: ① from November 17, 2021 to February 20, 2022, three large orders with an accumulated amount of 9.293 billion yuan continued to be fulfilled; ② While continuing to undertake large orders, the business of other sectors showed a momentum of accelerated growth.
In the commercialization stage, the growth was strong, and the growth of orders and production capacity accelerated. ① In terms of business, the company's revenue in the commercialization stage in 2021 is about 2.515 billion yuan (+ 51.70%), which is expected to be mainly due to the continuous delivery of large orders. The revenue of preclinical and clinical stage is about 1.723 billion yuan (+ 37.58%). We expect that it is mainly due to the continuous confirmation of the ability of "d" in the market, undertaking 235 preclinical to early clinical projects (+ 59.9%) and 55 clinical phase III projects (+ 31.0%). ② In terms of orders, at present, the company's orders on hand have reached US $1.898 billion, a year-on-year increase of 320%; ③ In terms of production capacity, the volume of the company's reactor is about 5000m3 at present. It is expected to release new production capacity in Tianjin, Dunhua, Zhenjiang and other areas in 2022. The total production capacity of the reactor is expected to be about 6862m3 (+ 46%) by the end of 2022.
New business expansion has been gradually reaped, constantly bringing new drivers of growth. In 2021, new businesses grew rapidly, with an overall revenue of about 398 million yuan (+ 67.43%), and the proportion of revenue increased to 8.57% (+ 1.03pp). 1) Chemical macromolecules: in 2021, the revenue was + 42.48%, with 14 new customers and 23 new projects; 2) preparation: 2021 preparation income +80.33%, aseptic eye drops business orders quantity +300%, spray drying workshop, hot melt extrusion technology platform has been put into use. 3) Clinical research services: in 2021, the revenue of clinical services was + 83.71%, 150 new contracts were signed, and the orders on hand now exceed 300 million yuan; 4) Biological macromolecules: at present, the orders on hand exceed 130 million yuan. In the middle of 2022, the construction of 2x2000l antibody stock solution and 2x500ladc coupling stock solution is expected to be completed, and the preparation capacity of Chinese mRNA and clinical samples is expected to be gradually completed.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering the increasing orders on hand and consolidating the certainty of performance, we expect the company's revenue to be RMB 11.666 billion, 11.929 billion and 12.195 billion from 2022 to 2024 (the predicted value before 20222023 is about RMB 8.781 billion and 10.601 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 151.48%, 2.26% and 2.23%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 2.572 billion, 2.604 billion and 2.701 billion (the predicted value before 20222023 is about RMB 2.053 billion and 2.463 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 140.58%, 1.22% and 3.75%. Considering that the company is in a high boom and high-quality track of innovative drug R & D and production outsourcing, and has become China's cdmo leader with comprehensive advantages such as technology, leading the rapid growth of the industry, it is expected to enjoy the valuation premium and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: the public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update, and the loss of core technicians; Risks of raw material supply and price rise, environmental protection and safety production risks; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
