\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 75 Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) )
Events
On March 30, the company released its annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 214 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.88%, of which the company's operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 685 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 56.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 87 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 91.7%. The performance exceeded expectations.
Business analysis
The company is expected to increase the price of products in the fourth quarter of 21 years, which is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter of 21 years ago. According to the disclosure of the annual report, the prices of some raw materials have increased to a certain extent in 21 years, which poses a certain pressure on the cost side of the company. In terms of product prices, the company's core products were in a downward channel in the first three quarters of 21 years, and the prices rose in the fourth quarter. At present, they have returned to a rational level. Among them, the technical quotation of chlorofluoropyroxyacetic acid is 195000 / T, the technical quotation of Cyhalothrin is 260000 / T, the technical quotation of alkyne is 205000 / T, the technical quotation of spironolactone is 180000 / T, and the technical quotation of loudiurea is 252000 / T.
The production of Huai'an base has returned to normal, and there is still room for further growth in the workshops of Nanjing base and Huai'an base. On October 14, 2021, safety accidents occurred in other enterprises in Huai'an industrial park where the company's subsidiary Guorui chemical is located. Guorui chemical actively cooperated and arranged temporary parking according to the unified deployment. Huai'an Guorui resumed production on December 1, 2021. According to the disclosure of the company's annual report, the projects currently being applied for in Nanjing and Huai'an bases include: expansion projects of ten technical drugs and related products such as cyfluthrin. We expect that the company's Nanjing and Huai'an bases will still have further growth space on the basis of existing workshops in the future.
The construction of Anhui base has started, and the long-term growth is good. At present, the company's annual output of 15500 tons of new pesticide technical drugs and related products has been approved by the EIA, with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan. According to the annual report, the current construction progress is 16%. According to the EIA report, public works and four workshops are planned to be built in phase I. We believe that the implementation of Anhui new pesticide project is conducive to the company's further expansion of production capacity and profitability.
Profit and investment forecast
Under the rising pressure of raw materials, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 349 million yuan (- 4.6%), 430 million yuan (- 5.5%) and 507 million yuan respectively; EPS is 1.69 yuan, 2.08 yuan and 2.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 11.34x / 9.2x / 7.8x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Global demand for pesticides is declining; The price of pesticide products fell; The progress of capacity construction and launch is less than expected; The safety and environmental protection inspection affects the normal commencement.
