\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: on March 30, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 75.676 billion yuan (+ 19.82%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.335 billion yuan (+ 22.95%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.977 billion yuan (+ 24.33%) after deduction. Among them, in Q4, the company realized an operating revenue of 20.163 billion yuan (+ 0.77%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.051 billion yuan (+ 112.81%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.401 billion yuan (+ 216.08%) after deduction.
In 2021, the product structure will be improved, and the average price of independent and Guangfeng bicycles will be increased. In 2021, the revenue of GAC motor and GAC e’an was 35.620 billion yuan and 17.265 billion yuan respectively, and the average price of single vehicle was 109900 yuan and 143700 yuan respectively, down 107255 yuan and 1194610 yuan respectively compared with 2020. We think it is mainly related to the hot sales of new models such as shadow Leopard and aiony in 2021. Benefiting from the 10% increase in the sales volume of gac-e’an, the average price of the company’s independent single car in 2021 was 119000 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan compared with 2020. In addition, in 2021, the revenue of guangben and Guangfeng was 114810 billion yuan and 129465 billion yuan respectively, and the average price of single vehicle was 147100 yuan and 156400 yuan respectively. The average price of guangben was close to that of 2020, and the average price of Guangfeng increased by 1157729 yuan compared with 2020, mainly due to the increase of the sales proportion of high-priced models such as leiling, Camry, willanda, hanlanda and Saina from 77.02% in 2020 to 81.91%.
The performance in 2021 exceeded expectations, and the contribution of investment income was mainly incremental. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.335 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22.95%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.977 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 24.33%. The performance exceeded expectations. On the one hand, the independent sales volume increased by 25.52% in 2021, driving the capacity utilization rate from 43.17% in 2020 to 54.19% in 2021. The independent gross profit margin in 2021 was 4.07%, an increase of 1.51% over 2020; On the other hand, the Japanese series ushered in a new product cycle in 2021. Guangfeng successively launched six new models, including the new Camry, the fourth generation Highlander and Saina. Guangben also successively launched models such as Xingge, haoying plug-in hybrid, the first pure electric car, Yile, Lingpai, accord and Odyssey. The continuous launch of new products further enriched the product matrix of Liangtian, helping guangben and Guangfeng achieve 780300 and 828000 annual sales respectively, The increase of sales volume combined with the increase of average price, guangben and Guangfeng contributed 4.246 billion yuan and 8.253 billion yuan of investment income respectively in 2021, an increase of 168 million yuan and 2.238 billion yuan compared with 2020, becoming the main driving force for the company’s performance growth in 2021. From the cost side, the total cost rate of the company in 2021 is 12.47%, which is basically the same as that in 2020. In a single quarter, Q4 company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.81%, and a net profit attributable to its parent company of 1.401 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 216.08%. The performance was close to the previous forecast upper limit. The main driving force for the doubling of Q4 profit came from the investment income contributed by Q4 Japan, which was 3.53 billion yuan, an increase of 1.283 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2020.
New product cycle + continuous expansion of production + price increase in ea’an + mixed reform in ea’an, with high performance growth in 2022. Looking forward to 2022, the models to be launched (or delivered) include aionlxplus of ai’an, aiony middle modified version and aionvplus6c version; GAC motor’s second-generation gs8 and GS4 brother cars, M8 hybrid version and shadow leopard hybrid version; Hiromoto’s style, new SUV and Electric Vehicle E: NP1; Guangfeng Saina, fenglanda, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x; Guangzhou Mitsubishi’s pure electric vehicle atuko. Capacity: according to the company’s announcement, the capacity under construction of ea’an, guangben and Guangfeng is 200000, 120000 and 200000 respectively, which are expected to be put into operation in 2022, 2024 and 2022 respectively. Price increase in ai’an: in response to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the decline of new energy subsidies, the prices of many cars under ai’an have increased twice since the end of 2021, with an increase of 4 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan. Ai’an mixed reform: according to the announcement, at present, ai’an has completed employee equity incentive and introduced strategic investors. The follow-up company will timely start the a-round war and joint-stock system reform, and choose the opportunity to go public. New product cycle + continuous expansion of production + price increase of ea’an + mixed reform of ea’an, and the company’s performance can be expected in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, gac-e’an’s sales volume is expected to continue to grow, gac-motor is expected to continue to reduce losses, and the listing of heavy-duty models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 9.81 billion, RMB 13.60 billion and RMB 17.74 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 12.0, 8.7 and 6.7 times respectively, maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price will be RMB 17.90/share.
Risk warning: the risk of epidemic out of control; Risk of continuous deterioration of independent sales volume; Fick’s risk of expanding losses.
