\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Key investment points
Performance in 2021: the proportion of medium and high-end revenue increased to 46.9%, turning losses into profits throughout the year
Revenue side: in 2021, the revenue was 6.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16% in 20 years and – 26% in 19 years; Among them, Q4’s revenue was 1.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of – 16% in 20 years and – 31% in 19 years. The revenue of Direct stores was 4.36 billion yuan, down from – 31% in 19 years; The franchise fee income was 1.47 billion yuan, down – 7% from 19 years. The revenue of Direct stores, franchise stores and scenic spots accounted for 71%, 24% and 5% respectively, compared with – 4.7, + 4.9 and – 0.2pct respectively in 19 years. Benefiting from the rapid development of the company’s medium and high-end brands, the proportion of medium and high-end products in hotel revenue increased from 42.3% in 2020 to 46.9% in 2021.
Cost side: in 2021, the operating cost + sales expense + management expense was 5.57 billion yuan, down from – 20% in 19 years, accounting for 91% of the revenue. Financial expenses increased to 520 million yuan from 90 million yuan in the previous year, mainly due to the adjustment of the new leasing standards.
Profit side: the net profit in 2021 is 10.11 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 55.68 million yuan, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 10.95 million yuan, which is – 530 million yuan, – 500 million yuan and – 530 million yuan respectively in 20 years, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is – 70 million yuan and that in 20q4 is 60 million yuan.
Opening of stores: in 2021, some economical and direct stores withdrew, vigorously developed light management, promoted upgrading and transformation, and continued to sink in 2022
By the end of 2021, the number of hotels in the company had reached 5916, an increase of 20.9% over the end of last year (the growth rate in 2020 was 10%), and the proportion of franchisees had increased by 3.5pct to 87.3%. 1418 new stores were opened throughout the year, completing the 14001600 store opening plan formulated at the beginning of the year, including 585 stores in Q4, accounting for 41% of the whole year. The cost of building stores in 2021 was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40%.
The proportion of medium and high-end rooms increased. 276 new stores were opened in 21 years, accounting for 19%; A net increase of 219 stores, accounting for – 0.4pct to 23.4% year-on-year; The proportion of guest rooms increased by 2.0pct to 31.6% year-on-year.
The light management brand quickly makes efforts to sink the market. 954 new stores were opened in 21 years, accounting for 67%; A net increase of 886 stores, accounting for + 12.1pct to 28.7% year-on-year.
Slow exit of economic enterprises. 133 new stores were opened in 21 years, accounting for 9%; There were 136 net closed stores, accounting for -10.9pct to 38.7% year-on-year, of which 63 were directly operated stores.
The company plans to continue sinking in 2022. By the end of 2021, the company has 1791 stores in reserve, and plans to open 18002000 stores in 2022 to accelerate the third to fifth tier sinking market layout.
Business data: the local epidemic repeatedly impacted the demand, the rental rate dragged down the recovery of RevPAR, and the RevPAR of economy hotels led the recovery throughout the year
RevPAR: it has recovered to 75% of that in 19 years, which is mainly dragged down by the low rental rate under the influence of the epidemic. In 2021, RevPAR of the company’s medium and high-end, economical and light management hotels were 158 yuan, 104 yuan and 76 yuan respectively, up from – 31%, – 24% and – 31% respectively in 19 years.
House price: the economic type is more stable. In the 21st year, the average house price of the company’s medium and high-end, economical and light management hotels was – 17%, – 4% and – 10% respectively compared with that in the 19th year.
Occupancy rate: medium and high-end demand is more resilient. Under the epidemic, the demand for business travel is more rigid. The rental rates of medium and high-end, economical and light management hotels of the company in 21 years were 60%, 65% and 51% respectively, which were – 12, – 17 and – 15 PCT respectively compared with 19 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
The epidemic crisis is conducive to the chain process of the industry, and the leader is always strong; With the recovery of demand in the hotel industry, the proportion of High Direct stores brings high performance elasticity. Driven by the three-year goal of ten thousand stores, the company will have high growth in the short term, increase the proportion of franchisees & the proportion of medium and high-end stores, improve profitability, ignore the management brand, accelerate the expansion of stores and cover a broad sinking market. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 640 million yuan, 1.48 billion yuan and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, and EPS to be 0.51, 1.18 and 1.39 yuan / share respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is lower than expected, and the exhibition speed is lower than expected.
