\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
The company released its 2021 annual report, which achieved an operating revenue of 136.4 billion yuan (+ 32.0%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 6.73 billion yuan (+ 25.4%); Earnings per share is 0.73 yuan. Among them, 21q4 sold 397000 vehicles (- 7.9%), realized an operating revenue of 45.61 billion yuan (+ 10.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.78 billion yuan (- 35.8%). In 2022, the company’s new product cycle will continue, and the shortage of chips and the rise in the price of raw materials are expected to be gradually alleviated, which will promote the high growth of sales and performance. In addition, the company has a comprehensive layout of electrification and intelligence, and is optimistic about its long-term development. We expect the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.00 yuan, 1.41 yuan and 1.86 yuan respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
Q4 sales fell, the average price increased significantly, and the performance was under pressure in the short term. In 2022, the company sold 1281000 vehicles (+ 14.8%), among which new energy and overseas markets performed well; Achieved revenue of 136.4 billion yuan (+ 32.0%), significantly outperforming the industry. It is estimated that the overall gross profit margin of the company will decrease by 1.1pct due to the adjustment of accounting standards and the rise in the price of raw materials. In terms of expenses, sales, management and R & D expenses increased by 26.5%, 58.4% and 46.4% respectively, mainly due to the increase of income, equity incentive expenses, new energy and intelligent R & D; Financial expenses decreased by 212.9%, mainly due to an increase of 860 million yuan in exchange earnings; The four expense rate was 9.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1pct. Revenue increased, gross profit margin and expense ratio decreased, and net profit deducted increased by 9.6%. Affected by the shortage of chips, 21q4 company sold 397000 vehicles (- 7.9%), the average price of product structure improvement reached 115000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, driving the revenue growth of 10.8%. It is expected that the adjustment of accounting standards and the price rise of raw materials will lead to a year-on-year decrease of 3.0pct in gross profit margin, the increase of equity incentive expenses and R & D projects will lead to an increase in management and R & D expenses, the four expense rate will increase by 0.6pct, and the net profit deducted from non parent company will decrease by 71.9%.
The new product cycle will continue in 2022, which is expected to promote high growth in sales and performance. The company plans to launch 60 new models from 2021 to 2023 and enter high-end electric vehicles, cars and other segments, with promising development prospects. Looking forward to 2022, the shortage of chips and the rise in the price of raw materials are expected to be gradually alleviated, the company’s new product cycle continues, and many new cars such as haver cool dog, Euler cat series, wey dream, tank 500 are listed. The comprehensive competitiveness of models under the new platform is outstanding, and the unit price and gross profit margin are significantly higher than the original models, which is expected to promote the explosion of sales and rapid growth of performance of the company.
Large investment in electrification and intellectualization is promising for long-term development. In 2021, the company invested 9.07 billion yuan (+ 76.1%), focusing on electrification, intellectualization and new projects, and achieved fruitful results. In terms of electrification, the company has a comprehensive layout in the fields of pure electric, hybrid and hydrogen energy. Pure electric Euler black cat, good cat and other products continue to sell well. In 2021, 139000 new energy vehicles (+ 137.3%) were sold, ranking fifth in China; In terms of hybrid, many DHT models, such as Mocha / latte / macchido, are expected to sell well; In terms of hydrogen energy, the company creates an integrated supply chain ecology of “production storage transportation addition use”, and plans to achieve the top three global hydrogen energy market share by 2025. In terms of intelligence, the company built China’s first autopilot data intelligence system, and comprehensively and rapidly upgraded technologies such as autopilot, intelligent cockpit, electronic and electrical architecture and chassis by wire. Intellectualization and electrification are the future development direction of the automotive industry. The company has a comprehensive layout and is progressing smoothly, and is optimistic about its long-term development.
Valuation
Considering the impact of the rise in the price of chips and raw materials, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s earnings per share in 20222024 will be 1.00 yuan, 1.41 yuan and 1.86 yuan respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
1) car sales and profitability are lower than expected; 2) The supply of chips and other parts is in short supply or the price is rising.
