\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Performance review
On March 30, the company released its annual report for 2021, which realized a revenue of 2.282 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 16.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 151 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 37.65%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 51.73%. 21q4 achieved an income of 654 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.91%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 66 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.67%.
Business analysis
The effect of product adjustment is obvious, and the pain period is gradually passed. The growth rate of Q4 accelerated month on month, which has the base effect caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, but it also reflects the effectiveness of the company's reform. Since the second half of the year, the company has actively carried out product structure adjustment, focused on high-quality products, and successively launched new channels for quantitative packaging. The number of dealers has increased by 98.75% year-on-year in 21 years; By the end of the 21st century, the proportion of quantitative loading had reached 8% - 10%. By category, baked snacks (including potato chips) / meat and fish / dried fruits / bean products / vegetarian / preserved fried goods / others (including spicy chips) were + 11% / + 23% / + 37% / + 5% / + 42% / - 17% / - 10% year-on-year respectively.
During the transition period, the profit margin was under pressure and repaired in the second half of the year. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company decreased by 8.12pct to 35.71%, and 21q4 decreased by 22.01pct to 25.52%; The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the large rise in the prices of raw materials such as soybean oil and palm oil; In addition, transportation expenses (accounting for 2% - 3% in previous years) are adjusted from sales expenses to operating costs. On the expense side, the sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses in 2021 were -1.91 / + 0.31 / + 0.62 / - 0.21pct year-on-year respectively, and the sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses in 21q4 were -18.29 / - 1.01 / + 0.56 / - 2.03pct year-on-year respectively. In Q4 peak season, the company's shipment was good, and the cost-effectiveness ratio of sales expenses increased significantly. In 21 years, the company incurred 58.99 million share based payment expenses, an increase of 13.44 million year-on-year. In 2021, the net interest rate decreased by 5.59pct to 6.77%; 21q4 increased by 1.08pct to 11.23%.
22. Young people should take part in the battle. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement. In the face of pressure, the company actively and rapidly adjusted its strategy, completed the new product promotion and product structure adjustment in 21 years, and is expected to release the scale effect in 22 years after the gradual large-scale cultivation of new products. In terms of the original bulk business, the company is gradually cooperating with the brands of offline snack stores (busy snacks, wife, adult, etc.), and the store island in the supermarket channel will still accelerate the layout in the sinking market.
Investment advice
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 319 / 429 / 546 million yuan respectively. Considering the uncertainty of the external environment, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be reduced by 29% / 33% respectively; The corresponding EPS is 2.47/3.32/4.22 yuan and the corresponding PE is 24 / 18 / 14x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The growth of new products did not meet the expectations, the expansion of channels did not meet the expectations, food safety problems and intensified industry competition.
