\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Performance
On March 30, 2022, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) issued the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 207.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42%. Among them, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 71.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%; The net profit deducted from non return to parent was 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is located in the performance forecast center, which is basically in line with our previous expectations.
Analysis
Profitability was repaired quarterly, and Kerry consolidated its Q4 revenue. Affected by the increase in resource investment at the beginning of 2021, the increase in the proportion of economic express with low gross profit margin, the end of tax relief and other factors, the company’s performance in 2021 decreased by 42% year-on-year. Since Q2, the company has optimized its business measures, focused on its core business, actively optimized the product and customer structure on the revenue side, promoted the four networks integration on the cost side, lean cost control, improved the overall benefits, and repaired the gross profit margin quarterly. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 12.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 4pct, of which Q4 gross profit margin rebounded to 14.5%, a year-on-year increase of 2.5pct. Q4 revenue and performance increased significantly year-on-year, of which the revenue contributed by Kerry Logistics was 20.3 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent was 370 million yuan.
The revenue of express delivery increased steadily, and the proportion of new business and profitability improved significantly. In 2021, the company’s express business revenue was 128.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; The business volume increased by 29.7% year-on-year, basically in line with the industry, and maintained high growth under the high base in 2020. In 2021, the company’s non express business revenue was 78.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81%, and the proportion of revenue increased by 10 PCT to 38%, continuing to change to an integrated logistics service provider. Among them, the net interest rates of express, intra city, supply chain and international segments increased by 2.2pct, 4.6pct, 0.8pct to – 1.9%, – 11.0% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year.
With the coordinated development of Kerry Logistics, international business will become a new performance growth point. The company and Kerry Logistics will develop together to jointly enhance the international business competitiveness: (1) as an international leading freight forwarding company, Kerry Logistics has the advantage of cargo volume and will help improve the loading rate of SF air fleet; (2) SF is expected to expand its international express business with the help of Kerry Logistics’s local operation strength in Southeast Asia. (3) SF’s air transportation capacity will help Kerry continue to strengthen its freight forwarding business. International business is expected to become the second growth curve of SF’s performance.
Investment advice
It is expected that the profitability of the company will be further improved. Maintain the company’s eps1 in 202223 55 yuan and 2.25 yuan, with a new forecast of 2.95 yuan for 2024. Maintain the “buy” rating and maintain the target price of 62 yuan.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of sharp rise in labor costs, the risk that the improvement of capacity utilization is less than expected, the risk that the development of new business is less than expected, and the risk that shareholders reduce their holdings.
