\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 115 China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) )
Summary of performance: in 2021, the company achieved an operating income of 67.1 billion yuan (year-on-year + 14.5%), corresponding to a loss of 12.2 billion yuan of net profit attributable to the parent (loss of 11.8 billion yuan in the same period of 20 years), deducting a loss of 13.5 billion yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent (loss of 12.7 billion yuan in the same period of 20 years), which expanded the loss. Quarterly, Q1 ~ Q4 revenue is 13.4 billion yuan, 21.3 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan and 14.6 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company is – 3.8 billion yuan, – 1.4 billion yuan, – 3 billion yuan and – 4.1 billion yuan respectively.
The loss of foreign exchange deduction core profit was about 15.1 billion yuan. In 2021, the RMB appreciated by 6.9%, and the net exchange gain of the company was 1.6 billion yuan (exchange gain of 2.5 billion yuan in the same period of 20 years).
In terms of operation data, RPK was + 1.4% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 49% compared with 19 years. Among them, China’s RPK increased by 11% year-on-year, 75% of the same period in 19 years. Ask + 5.7% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 59% compared with 19 years. In terms of passenger seat rate, the annual passenger seat rate in 21 years was 67.7% (year-on-year -2.8pp). In terms of fleet introduction, the compound growth rate of 20222024 fleet was 1.53%. By December 2021, the company has 752 aircraft fleet. It is estimated that the size of the company’s aircraft fleet from 2022 to 2024 will be 770, 770 and 768 respectively. The company plans to withdraw 39 aircraft in 2025 and has no aircraft introduction plan.
Customer revenue picked up and unit costs rose. In 2021, the passenger kilometer revenue was 0.53 yuan (year-on-year + 7.9%), including 0.51 yuan (year-on-year + 11.9%) for China line, 0.74 yuan (year-on-year – 17.1%) for regional line and 1.79 yuan (year-on-year + 120.5%) for international line. In 2021, the company’s unit cost was 0.498 yuan (year-on-year + 7.0%), of which the unit fuel cost was 0.128 yuan (year-on-year + 40.8%), and the unit fuel deduction cost was 0.370 yuan (year-on-year – 1.24%). In 2021, the oil distribution center rose by 70%, and the crude oil price sharply put great pressure on the cost side of airlines.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. During the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aircraft fleet size in the aviation industry is expected to be less than 6%, and the compound growth rate of demand in the same period is 5.9%. Civil aviation will usher in the improvement of supply and demand structure in the medium term. Affected by the epidemic in China and the world, we lowered our profit forecast for 2022 and beyond. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be – 8, – 4.3 and 2.4 billion yuan, corresponding to – 11, – 21 and 37 times of PE. Maintain a “hold” rating.
Risk tip: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of travel demand is blocked, the macro-economy is down, and the cost of crude oil is rising.
