\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
The business of public offering and wealth management increased significantly, with obvious head advantages, and equity incentive showed development confidence
In 2021, the company’s operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.25/10.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17% / + 8%, roe 10.5% 6%, the same as that in 2020, with a leverage ratio of 3.7 times, a year-on-year increase of + 23%, and the performance is slightly lower than our expectation. The performance of the company’s public fund and wealth management business line increased significantly, the net income of asset management / brokerage / interest was + 51% / + 21% / + 16% respectively, and the income of proprietary investment and investment banking decreased. Taking into account the significant decline in the net value of the stock market and partial stock funds since the beginning of the year, we lowered the company’s forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to RMB 11.45/13.97 billion (RMB 15.22/18.46 billion before the adjustment), and increased the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to RMB 17.24 billion, corresponding to EPS 1.2 billion from 2022 to 202450 / 1.83/2.26 yuan. We estimate that in 2021, the company’s big wealth management line (GF Fund + e fund + GF asset management + consignment) contributed a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13% and a profit contribution of 29%, slightly lower than our expectation, which was mainly affected by GF asset management. The company plans to repurchase A-Shares and implement restricted stock incentive, with a total repurchase amount of 203 million to 406 million, which is conducive to establishing a long-term incentive and restraint mechanism and showing confidence in the development prospect of the company. The roe level of the company is leading in the industry. In 2021, the classified evaluation returned to AA level. The head advantage of its public funds is significant. The investment bank and asset management business are expected to continue to improve. The current share price corresponds to PB1 in 2022 2X, pe12 Double, maintain the “buy” rating.
The market share of GF fund and e fund continued to increase, and the total profit contribution of asset management business line reached 24%
(1) in 2021, the revenue / net profit of GF was 9.35/2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50% / + 43%, roe29%, and the profit contribution reached 13%; At the end of the year, AUM (wind caliber) of non goods was 669.6 billion, up + 37% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 4.16% of the market, up + 0.02pct from the beginning of the year. (2) In 2021, e fund’s revenue / net profit was 14.56/4.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58% / + 65%, roe 39% and profit contribution of 9%; At the end of the year, AUM (wind caliber) of non goods was 119 billion, up + 52% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 7.39% of the market, up + 0.79 PCT from the beginning of the year. (3) In 2021, the revenue / net profit of Guangfa asset management was 760 / 200 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 56% / – 78%, which is mainly affected by the increase of fair value change loss and the decrease of management fee income. It is expected to improve significantly in 2022; At the end of the year, the collective management scale of Guangfa asset management increased significantly to 352.6 billion, up + 158% from the beginning of the year.
Significant progress has been made in the transformation of wealth management, the return on proprietary investment has decreased, and the improvement of investment banking business can be expected
(1) the transformation of the company’s wealth management has made remarkable progress. The consignment income and the scale of non commodity basic insurance at the end of the year rank among the top 3 in the industry. In 2001, the consignment income was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 85%, accounting for 15% of the securities brokerage income; The scale of funds and trusts sold by the company on a commission basis was 105.6/24.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 44% / + 134%. At the end of the year, the scale of financial products sold on a commission basis was + 17% year-on-year. (2) In 2021, the company’s financial asset investment income was 5.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year rate of return of – 15%, 5.6% and – 2.3pct. The original advantages of the company’s investment banking business are obvious, and the business income is expected to continue to rise.
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of stock market causes the uncertainty of brokerage profit; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
