\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 533 Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) )
Event: on March 31, the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved an annual operating revenue of 12.832 billion (+ 64.60%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 331 million (+ 32.60%), and a gross profit margin of 12.40%.
In 2021, revenue increased rapidly and profitability was under pressure. In 2021, the company's revenue increased by 64.60% year-on-year, and its performance increased by about 32.60% year-on-year. Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 35%, and a net profit of 70 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 25%. The main reasons for the rapid growth of the company's revenue include: 1) the company has expanded its market expansion and increased its share around several downstream plants such as transmission and substation plants, new energy and Minsheng factories; 2) Consolidated statement of Tongli electrician, a secondary subsidiary; 3) Copper prices rose, driving an increase in operating income. The main reasons for the pressure on the company's profitability include: 1) the price of raw materials increased, and the price of copper increased by more than 40% compared with the same period of last year; 2) The cold chain logistics sector suffered losses and the pork price fell, resulting in the loss of inventory falling price accrued by the subsidiary Yunleng food, with a loss of about 90 million yuan.
Capacity expansion accelerated and the industrial chain extended upward. Traditional cable: according to the plan disclosed in the company's annual report, the company will accelerate the technical transformation, capacity expansion and quality improvement of the main cable industry. The jinbeita brand rail transit cable manufacturing project was fully put into operation in August, with a new production capacity of 2.25 billion yuan; Wuhan Business Division will form a capacity scale of 5 billion yuan after it reaches the production capacity in 2023; The production capacity of high-voltage cross-linked cables in Hengyang factory will be upgraded, and the quality improvement project will add 855 million yuan of production capacity. New energy vehicle flat line: according to the company's announcement, in 2021, the company's new energy vehicle flat line expansion and construction has successfully reached the production capacity of 7000 tons / year in phase I, and the construction of phase II civil engineering has started. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 25000 tons by the end of 2022, including 20000 tons in Xiangtan base and 5000 tons in Wuxi base. The company has imported finishing mill equipment from France and synchronously expanded the production capacity of oxygen free copper rod by 20000 tons. In addition, the company is also actively expanding a variety of insulation schemes and the formulation of insulating paint, which is expected to accelerate the extension to the upstream of the industrial chain and improve the self-made rate.
The new energy flat line has accelerated its volume, and the turning point of profitability can be expected. The company has achieved mass production of five new energy vehicle flat lines, and has carried out cooperation with more than 120 projects with more than 50 customers. Existing customers include: BorgWarner, United electronics, Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) and Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) etc. supporting car enterprises include new power car enterprises such as ideal and Weilai, as well as independent brands such as Geely, great wall and Chang'an, as well as foreign-funded car enterprises such as Honda, BMW and Daimler. The company will continue to actively expand China's leading new energy vehicle enterprises and core third-party motor supplier customers in the future.
We believe that 2021 is the low point of the company's profit, and the inflection point of the company is clear from 2022: 1) in 2022, the cost side pressure of the company's raw materials is expected to gradually spread to the downstream, and the price of product processing fee will be increased; 2) The accelerated release of oxygen free copper rod capacity and the gradual superposition of self-made insulating paint are expected to further improve the closed loop of the industrial chain and optimize the pressure on the cost side; 3) The proportion of 800V and other high-end products increased; 4) The drag of some assets such as cold chain on the company's main business is expected to be gradually eliminated. In 2022, the company's high-end flat lines of new energy accelerated in large quantities. After the proportion increased, new customers expanded one after another, and the turning point of the company's profitability was clear.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 15.142 billion yuan, 17.868 billion yuan and 20.369 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 504 million yuan, 662 million yuan and 911 million yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 10.1, 7.7 and 5.6 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "Buy-A" rating, with a six-month target price of 8.50 yuan / share.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Market competition risk.
