\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 561 Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) )
Event:
The company issued the announcement on recent operation after closing on March 29, 2022.
Comments:
The main business maintains a high-speed development trend, and the Q1 revenue is expected to increase by 43% – 47% year-on-year
Since 2022, the company has continued to implement the development strategies of “Olympic”, “internationalization”, “LEGO” and “service”, and various main businesses continue to maintain a high-speed development momentum. With the mass production of R & D platform and the organizational adjustment of legionnaization, the company’s R & D Efficiency has been greatly improved, and the proportion of R & D expenses and revenue in the whole year is expected to decrease significantly. Thanks to the strong demand of key information infrastructure customers of operators, energy, finance and other companies, up to now, the company’s orders on hand exceed 2.3 billion yuan, and the new orders in 2022 exceed 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 65%. According to the preliminary financial calculation of the company, the company expects the operating revenue to increase by 43% – 47% year-on-year from January to March 2022.
The mass production of R & D platform drives the improvement of R & D efficiency, and the profitability is expected to be significantly improved
According to the summary of public investor research on March 10, 2022, the company expects that the profitability of 2022 will be significantly improved: “the R & D platform has mass production capacity in 2022, and the R & D efficiency will be significantly improved. It is foreseeable that the R & D expense rate and other related expenses of the company will be significantly narrowed in 2022, and the final profit and loss balance can be roughly calculated through the improvement of platform efficiency”. According to the company’s disclosure, orders from more than 3 million customers accounted for nearly 40% in the past two years. Special industries such as finance, operators and energy increased significantly in the proportion of revenue, and the customer safety budget was sufficient. With the continuous improvement of business quality, the company’s per capita income is expected to gradually increase to 1 million / person, and the medium and long-term net interest rate will be maintained at about 20%.
The company plans to buy back 1.875-3.75 million shares, demonstrating the company’s confidence in long-term development in the future
On March 9, 2022, the company issued the announcement on the share repurchase scheme of the company by means of centralized bidding transaction, which plans to repurchase shares by means of centralized bidding transaction. The total amount of repurchase funds shall not be less than 150 million yuan (inclusive), not more than 300 million yuan (inclusive), and the repurchase price shall not exceed 80 yuan / share (inclusive). According to the calculation of total repurchase funds and repurchase price, the number of shares to be repurchased is about 1.875-3.75 million. The repurchased shares will be fully used for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive at an appropriate time in the future, and will be transferred within three years after the implementation result of share repurchase and the announcement date of share change. As of the closing on March 28, 2022, the company has repurchased 867530 shares of the company in the form of centralized bidding transaction. The highest price of repurchase is 61.28 yuan / share and the lowest price is 56.45 yuan / share. The total amount of funds paid is 50538096 yuan (including stamp duty, transaction commission and other transaction expenses).
Profit and investment forecast
The network security industry is in a high business cycle. The company has chosen the development mode of high R & D investment, actively layout new tracks, and has a broad growth space. It is predicted that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.737 billion yuan, 8.033 billion yuan and 10.697 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be -511 million yuan, – 53 million yuan and 357 million yuan, and the EPS will be -0.75, -0.08 and 0.52 yuan / share. The company is currently in a state of loss and the PS valuation method is applicable. Regardless of the value of low gross margin business (hardware and others), it is predicted that the revenue of high gross margin business in 2022 will be 7.386 billion yuan. Since listing, the company’s PS mainly operates between 7-27 times. Considering the recent adjustment of the overall valuation level of the market, the target PS of the company’s high gross margin business in 2022 will be reduced to 11 times, with the corresponding target market value of 81.246 billion yuan and the target price of 119.12 yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 recurrent pneumonia; The promotion of network security related policies is less than expected; The product development and market expansion of the new track are not as expected; Goodwill impairment.
