\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 801 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 291883%, which is above the median value of the performance forecast, which is in line with the market expectation. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 4.842 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 413.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 801 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 291883%; Deduct non net profit of 770 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132582%; In 2021, the gross profit margin was 28.85%, with a year-on-year increase of 18.49pct; The net profit margin of sales was 16.61%, with a year-on-year increase of 20.31pct. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 was 556 million yuan, an increase of 410.45% month on month, and the performance increased significantly.
The year-on-year increase in shipment in 21 years, supply shortage + inventory revenue contribution, and 2h2021 profit increased significantly. In 2021, the company shipped 91000 tons of iron lithium, with a year-on-year increase of 198%, of which about 38000 tons of Q4 iron lithium cathode were shipped, with a month-on-month increase of 70% +, mainly because the company’s 30000 tons of technological transformation increment has been put into operation in Q4, contributing to the increment, and the company’s production capacity has reached 155000 tons by the end of 21. In terms of profitability, the company’s net profit per ton in 2021 was about 8800 yuan / ton (the loss was 2000 yuan / ton in 20 years), and the profit increased significantly. Among them, 2021q4 benefited from the incremental contribution of low-cost raw material inventory income, and the profit per ton of lithium iron phosphate was 15000 ~ 16000 yuan / ton, which increased nearly twice month on month. We expect that excluding the impact of inventory income, the profit per ton of Q4 is expected to be nearly 10000 yuan / ton. We expect that the 22-year profit level is expected to maintain 8000 / ton, basically flat year-on-year.
Binding with major downstream customers, the company’s production capacity continues to expand, and we expect it to double in 22 years. By the end of 2021, the company’s production capacity was 155000 tons, of which 30000 tons of technological transformation increment Q4 was gradually put into operation, contributing to the increment of Qujing German side; In addition, the company’s capacity under construction is 180000 tons, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) joint venture 100000 tons and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) joint venture 80000 tons. We expect to put into operation in Q2 and Q3 respectively in 2022. By the end of 2022, the company’s capacity will reach 335000 tons, with a combined planned 440000 tons of lithium ferromanganese capacity. It is planned to put into operation in 20232024, with a total capacity of 770000 tons.
The company’s layout of manganese iron lithium is leading in the industry and its competitiveness is further strengthened. It is expected to start small batch mass production in 2022h2. Lithium manganese iron phosphate maintains the stability of lithium iron and improves the energy density. We expect it to become the upgrading direction of traditional lithium iron and middle-end ternary. The company has made a technological breakthrough in the development of new phosphate cathode materials. The products have passed the small-scale test link and have been preliminarily put into the construction of R & D pilot test line. The products have passed the small-scale verification of downstream customers and have been highly recognized by customers. We expect that 2022h2 is expected to be shipped in small quantities, 110000 tons of production capacity will be released in 2023, which is expected to be mass produced on a large scale. The company’s new lithium manganese iron phosphate has a higher voltage platform. When used with lithium supplement, the energy density of the battery can be increased by about 20%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the high demand for iron and lithium, the company is a leading enterprise of iron and lithium, and the rapid expansion of production capacity, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 1.557224632 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 (the original forecast value from 2022 to 2023 was 1.528/2.125 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 94% / 44% / 42%. In response to pe35 / 25 / 17x, we will give 45 times PE in 2022, the target price is 785 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
