\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Event: on March 30, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) issued the annual report for 2021. Revenue 286.39 billion yuan, yoy + 11.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 64.2 billion yuan, yoy + 18.6%; The non-performing rate is 0.82% (- 0bp), and the provision coverage rate is 418.6% (- 4.1pct).
Revenue growth rose month on month, and profit growth remained high. In 2021, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) operating revenue yoy + 11.4%, up 1.2pct month on month, rising against the industry trend; The net profit attributable to the parent company was yoy + 18.6%. Although affected by the base, it fell by 3.4pct month on month, it is still in a dominant position among comparable peers.
The “secret weapon” of high prosperity: high non interest income. In 2021, the Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) middle income was yoy + 33.4%, which was also against the industry trend. It not only maintained a high level, but also increased month on month; Other non interest income, yoy + 67.6%, is another leading figure in the industry.
The net interest margin is stable, and the expansion speed is ahead of banks of the same size. The net interest margin in 2021 was 2.36%, down 1bp from 21h1, and has stabilized at present. The average balance of loans grew by 13.3%, higher than the growth rate of credit in the whole society in the same period.
The expansion focused on investment and personal loans, and the structure of new corporate loans was optimized. By the end of 2021, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) financial investment and personal loans accounted for 1.1pct and 0.8pct of interest bearing assets respectively, which remained the main force of asset side expansion; The proportion of corporate loans decreased by 0.1pct, but the incremental industry structure was more balanced, and the strategy achieved initial results.
The reason why China’s revenue is so strong: the revenue from commission sales is nearly doubled Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 2021 mid year revenue + 33.4%, 21q4 single quarter + 36.1%, such a strong momentum is due to the contribution of agency and wealth management revenue. From 2020 to 2021, the agency business revenue increased from 6.49 billion yuan to 12.24 billion yuan, yoy + 88.7%, nearly doubling.
The quality of assets has always been excellent, and the provision level has remained high. By the end of 2021, its non-performing rate had stabilized at 0.82% and the provision coverage rate was 418.6%. There is still great potential to feed back profits in the future. In 21h2 half a year, the proportion of loans overdue within 90 days decreased by 7bp to 0.28%, and there is room for further decline in the non-performing rate in the future.
Investment suggestion: retail can easily reap profits and be ambitious to the public. The advantages of retail outlets, location and number of people can shine in the era of great wealth; The corporate expansion strategy has achieved initial results, and the credit supply by industry is more balanced; The statement is clean and “clear to the bottom”, the provision level is high, or there may be a large space for back feeding for a long time. It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 21.3%, 17.6% and 22.0%. The closing price on March 30, 2022 corresponds to 0.7 times of 22 year Pb, and the rating of “recommended” will be given for the first time.
Risk warning: the macroeconomic situation is down; Credit risk exposure; The transformation progress is less than expected.
