\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 028 China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) )
The profit reached a ten-year high: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) released the annual report for 21 years. The company achieved a revenue of 274088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 71.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 114.0%. The profit reached a ten-year high. In terms of sectors, the exploration and development sector achieved a revenue of 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.0% and a gross profit margin of 12.9%, an increase of 7 PCT; The oil refining sector achieved a revenue of 138556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.8% and a gross profit margin of 6.0%, an increase of 4 PCT; The marketing and distribution sector achieved a revenue of 141154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.1%, and a gross profit margin of 6.4%, down 0.9 PCT; The chemical sector achieved a revenue of 505.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.0% and a gross profit margin of 6.9%, down by 2 PCT. In addition, the company’s dividend in 2021 was 56.9 billion yuan, accounting for 79.9% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, with a dividend rate of about 10.9%.
Significant increase in capital expenditure plan: the company’s planned capital expenditure in 2022 is RMB 19.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 17.9%. Among them, the capital expenditure of exploration and development sector was 81.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.7%; The capital expenditure of oil refining sector was 20.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 9.3%; The capital expenditure of marketing and distribution sector was 23.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.2%; The capital expenditure of the chemical sector was 66.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.1%; The capital expenditure of other parts was 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.8%. The capital expenditure of the chemical sector has increased significantly, which is mainly used for the construction of ethylene projects in Hainan and Tianjin Nangang, Jiujiang aromatics, Shanghai big silk bundle carbon fiber, Yizheng PTA, Guizhou PGA, Zhenhai Refining and chemical phase II and other projects.
The company plans to produce 281.2 million barrels of crude oil in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 0.5%, and 1256.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of + 4.8%. Under the background of high oil prices, the upstream is expected to contribute to profit elasticity. In the long run, the company has accelerated the pace of low-carbon energy transformation, actively arranged hydrogen energy, photovoltaic and charging and replacement businesses, and vigorously developed degradable materials, medical and health materials and other businesses. The company continues to optimize the industrial structure, promote the comprehensive conservation, intensive and recycling of resources, accelerate the tackling of green and low-carbon technologies, and actively develop CCUs and other technologies.
Profit and investment forecast
Combined with the current crude oil price, we adjusted the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 to 0.63, 0.67 and 0.68 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 0.62, 0.63 and – yuan). According to the 22-year average PE of comparable companies, we gave the target price of 5.04 yuan (the original target price of 6.48 yuan) and maintained the overweight rating.
Risk tips
Decline in product demand; The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; The progress of the project is less than expected.
