\u3000\u30 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 57 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an annual revenue of 67.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13.88%.
Affected by multiple adverse factors, the company's performance in 2021 is under pressure. In 2021, the company achieved an annual revenue of 67.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13.88%. The main factors for the decline in performance are: 1) since April last year, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry has fallen. The main reason is that the policy regulation of the real estate industry and the release of special bonds are less than expected, resulting in the decline in the construction project construction volume, while the construction machinery industry accounts for 95% of the company's main business; 2) The rising price of raw materials increases the cost pressure of enterprises; 3) R & D investment continued to increase. In 2021, the company's R & D expenses reached 3.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and the R & D expense rate reached 5.76%, a year-on-year increase of 0.62pct.
The steady growth policy has been continuously promoted to boost the demand for construction machinery. Since the beginning of this year, the effect of the steady growth policy has begun to show, and the economic data from January to February released by the National Bureau of statistics is stronger than market expectations. From the perspective of infrastructure investment, from January to February this year, infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) increased by 8.10% compared with the same period last year, which is also the first time that the growth rate has been positive since May last year, which well reflects the requirement of "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment" proposed by the previous policy. Similarly, in terms of the issuance progress of special bonds, the amount of special bonds of local governments increased by 3.65 trillion yuan this year, and the issuance speed was significantly accelerated from January to February. On March 23, the Ministry of Finance announced that 1077.6 billion yuan of new bonds were issued from January to February, including 2001 billion yuan of general bonds and 877.5 billion yuan of special bonds. In the same period last year, the local government did not issue new bonds. Under the main line of steady growth this year, infrastructure development will boost the demand for construction machinery.
The electrification of construction machinery may become a new engine for the growth of the industry, and actively pay attention to the progress of the company. Under the background of "double carbon" goal, the electrification of construction machinery is the general trend. As of December 2021, the company has released more than 50 new energy products, covering concrete pump trucks, concrete mixer trucks, truck cranes, aerial work platforms, excavators, mining trucks, forklifts, emergency vehicles, agricultural machinery and other fields. The forms of new energy include pure electric, hybrid and hydrogen fuel, and a full range of new energy products have been basically formed. Considering that the stock of construction machinery and equipment is very large and many emission standards are relatively low, electric alternative fuel will give birth to a huge demand for renewal. As a leading enterprise in electrification, the company is expected to gain more market share and more prominent leading position in the tide of electrification!
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 73.780 billion yuan, 79.793 billion yuan and 89.519 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.482 billion yuan, 8.487 billion yuan and 10.038 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86 yuan, 0.98 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: infrastructure investment is less than expected, new product development is less than expected, etc.
