\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Core view
In 2021, the revenue recovered 74%, and the performance turned from loss to profit, which is consistent with the performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.153 billion yuan / + 16.49%, returning to 74% in 2019; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 56 million yuan / + 552 million yuan, which is restored to 6% of that in 2019; Deduct the non performance of RMB 11 million and turn around the loss as a whole, eps0 06 yuan, consistent with the performance express. Among them, the hotel business income is 5.832 billion yuan / + 16%, and the scenic spot business income is 321 million yuan / + 27%, with 74% and 71% recovery respectively. The net loss of the hotel segment was 79 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease (a loss of 589 million yuan last year); The net profit of scenic spot business was 89 million yuan / + 52.82%, recovering 69%.
Q4 revenue recovered slightly, with a performance loss of 69 million yuan under the disturbance of the epidemic. In 2021q4, the company achieved revenue of 1.427 billion yuan / – 16.32%, only recovering 69% (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 recovered 65% / 92% / 71% respectively). The performance and deduction of non performance lost 69 million yuan and 83 million yuan respectively, which is still under pressure and affected repeatedly by the epidemic. In 2021, the overall RevPAR of the hotel will recover by 75%, and Q1-Q4 will recover by 44%, 91%, 71% and 71% respectively. On the whole, Q2 of the company recovered gradually in 2021, but the performance remained under pressure after repeated outbreaks in the second half of the year.
2021q4 increased the speed and opened 585 new stores, achieving the goal of exhibition stores for the whole year. 1418 stores were opened throughout the year, the highest level in history, with light management brands accounting for 67.3%; There was a net increase of 1021 in the whole year, including – 136 / + 219 / + 886 / + 52 economical / medium and high-end / light management brands / others. By the end of 2021, the number of hotels of the company had reached 5916. Medium and high-end and light assets continued to strengthen. The proportion of medium and high-end stores increased from 29.7% in 2020 to 31.6%, and the proportion of Direct stores decreased from 21.8% in 2020 to 18.8% (calculated by room volume).
The goal of opening stores in 2022 is positive, pay attention to the follow-up travel policies and relax the pace. In 2022, the company plans to open 18002000 new stores, which is significantly faster than before (14001600 in 2021). 1791 reserve stores have provided support, and the goal of 10000 stores in three years has been actively promoted. By the end of 2021, the company will increase by 3 billion yuan, laying a good capital foundation for subsequent expansion. Although the company still needs to track the recurrence of the epidemic in China and relax the pace of travel policies in the short term, the company’s performance will also be flexible when the industry recovers in the future. By the end of 2021, the total number of members had reached 133 million / + 6.4%, which continued to increase; In addition, ShouLv group, the major shareholder of the company, previously promised to inject some of its qualified Hotel asset management rights into listed companies by the end of 2022. At present, it is actively promoting and is expected to contribute to performance increment.
Risk tips: repeated epidemics, travel recovery, store expansion and reform of state-owned enterprises are lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.37/1.02/1.28 yuan (it was 0.67/1.04 yuan in the previous 22-23 years, and the reduction in 2022 is mainly due to the recent repeated epidemic in core cities, and the recovery assumption of RevPAR will be reduced from 85% to 81% this year and basically unchanged in 2023), corresponding to the PE valuation of 65 / 24 / 19x in 22-24 years. On the whole, the company will look at the recovery elasticity of the industry in the future; Second, under the goal of ten thousand stores in three years, the expansion of store scale is accelerated, and the goal of opening stores this year further reflects the company’s determination to accelerate expansion; Third, we should actively promote the asset integration of major shareholders and maintain the “buy” rating.