\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
In the fourth quarter, the sales volume was + 49% month on month, and the performance improved significantly month on month. In 2021, the revenue was 136.4 billion yuan (+ 32%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.73 billion yuan (+ 25%), and the non net profit deducted was 4.2 billion yuan (+ 10%); Q4 achieved a revenue of 45.6 billion yuan (YoY + 11%, mom + 58%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.78 billion yuan (YoY – 36%, mom + 26%), and deducted a non net profit of 550 million yuan (YoY – 72%, Mom – 32%). In terms of sales volume, the total sales volume of Q4 in 21 years was 397000 (year-on-year – 8%, month on month + 49%).
In the fourth quarter, the net profit of single vehicle decreased slightly, and it is expected to enter the upward channel in the long term. In terms of the average price of a single car, the average price of a single car in 2021 was 106000 yuan (year-on-year + 13000 yuan). In a single quarter, the average price of Q4 single car was 115000 yuan (year-on-year + 19000 yuan, month on month + 6000 yuan), a record high. In terms of profitability, the net profit of single vehicle in 2021 was 5300 yuan (year-on-year + 0500 yuan). Q4 company’s net profit of single vehicle was 4500 yuan (year-on-year – 200000 yuan), and the net profit of Q4 single vehicle decreased slightly. We believe that it is mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials, the shortage of chips and equity incentive fees. The company continues to implement the category focus strategy, strengthen international market development, actively promote the development of new energy and intelligence, further optimize the product structure, and the company’s profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Accelerated transformation of intelligent electrification, continued promotion of globalization and accelerated reform and innovation Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) has made precise investment in hybrid, pure electricity and hydrogen energy, and successively launched various strategies and advanced technologies. In terms of intelligence, there are landing products in the field of intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit. In 2021, the company proposed to transform into a global intelligent technology company, focusing on the global R & D, production, sales system and talent construction. By the end of 2021, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) has been exported to more than 170 countries and regions, with a cumulative overseas sales of more than 900000 vehicles. In terms of organizational change, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) through “strong back office, big middle office and small front desk”, establish a global version 3.0 organizational structure.
The future market of new platform models can be expected, and the brand is firm and upward. In terms of sales volume by brand, Euler brand + 140%, pickup brand + 26%, Haval brand + 2.6% and wey brand – 26% in 21 years. Relying on the new “lemon + supply channel” model, the company is expected to create a new round of strong brand and strong profitability in 2022.
Risk tip: the risk of industry sales decline and the risk of new models failing to meet expectations.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the buy rating. Taking into account the impact of the lack of core and the rise in the price of raw materials, we lowered the company’s profit forecast and expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.51/18.1 billion in 22-24 years (the previous forecast was RMB 13.4/19 billion in 22-23 years). As a leader of independent auto enterprises, the company has great profit elasticity and is expected to significantly benefit from the recovery of the industry and the layout of new platforms. We updated the one-year target stock price of RMB 35-43, corresponding to 25-30 times of PE in 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
