\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 109.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%; The operating revenue was 106.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%.
Comments:
21q4 speed up, marketing reform steadily. 21q4, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 32.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.05%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.09%, significantly faster than the first three quarters, and successfully achieved the annual growth target of 10.5%. In 2021, the performance of the expense side was relatively stable, with an annual gross profit margin of 91.54% and a net profit margin of 52.47%, slightly increased. As the company no longer added the planned quota of dealers, the proportion of direct sales further increased, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7pct to 22.66%, a record high. The direct sales volume was 5735.7 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 45.87%, and the ton price was 4.1894 million / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 24.42%; The distribution sales volume is 60703 tons, and the ton price is 1351300 / ton, both of which remain stable. In the whole year, the company added 63 dealers, reduced 20 dealers, and 2089 dealers at the end of the year. The distribution channel structure was sorted out in place. According to the “five in one marketing law”, the company accelerated the reform of online digital platform, and the “I Maotai” app was launched on March 31 to further strengthen the channel management and control ability and deliver it more accurately to the core consumer groups.
Maotai liquor grew steadily, and the structure optimization of series liquor was accelerated. In 2021, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.18%, the gross profit margin was 94%, the output was 56500 tons, the sales volume was 36300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, the ton price was 2.58 million / ton, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the price and volume rose steadily; The revenue of series liquor was 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%, the gross profit margin was 73.7%, the output was 28200 tons, the sales volume was 30100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, the ton price was 420000 / ton, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, and the structural optimization was obvious. In 2022, with the restructuring of ultra-high-end products, the company paid more attention to non-standard and group purchase customization, and the brand premium power was further released; After Maotai was launched in 1935, the market feedback was good and became a new engine for the growth of series liquor. We expect that the ton price of series liquor will still have great room for improvement in 2022. Since 2017, the sales volume of series liquor has been stable at about 30000 tons, and the growth is mainly driven by price. Since 2019, the production capacity of series liquor has increased year by year, 6400 tons of production capacity will be released in 2022, 30000 tons of technical transformation and 12000 tons of Tongmin town projects are being implemented in an orderly manner, and the volume of series liquor can be expected in the future.
22q1 continued to accelerate growth, with a revenue target of 15% in 2022. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, 22q1 is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 33.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%. It continues the good momentum of 21q4 and is less affected by the epidemic and macro environment. Since March, the wholesale price of all products of Maotai liquor has dropped significantly, mainly due to the increased investment expectation and weak economic environment due to the launch of digital platform, which has led to the extrusion of investment funds, mostly emotional fluctuations. At present, the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles is stable at about 2600 yuan and the whole box is stable at about 2800 yuan. The narrowing of the price difference will further improve the balance between investment and consumer demand.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: we expect the company’s diluted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 49.36 yuan, 57.60 yuan and 66.96 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk; Risk of recurrent epidemic
