\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 969 Hainan Mining Co.Ltd(601969) )
The company focuses on the upstream of resources and helps Fosun form a closed loop of new energy industry chain. In 2021, the company's iron ore revenue reached 2.388 billion yuan, accounting for 57.98% of the company's total revenue; In 2021, the company's oil and gas revenue reached 1.136 billion yuan, accounting for 27.58% of the company's total operating revenue. Fosun Group has formed an integrated layout in the new energy industry. The group's positioning of Hainan Mining Co.Ltd(601969) is the upstream lithium resources and lithium salt processing. The company plans a 20000 ton lithium hydroxide project, which will be put into operation in the second half of 2023.
The taste of iron ore has improved, and the volume and price of oil and gas industry have increased simultaneously. In the future, the company will increase the grade of the second type of iron concentrate from 63% to 65% through the magnetization roasting project, and the selling price of each ton of iron ore will increase by US $30-35. In 2021, the company acquired BAJIAOCHANG gas field through Locke oil. The natural gas output of the gas field in 2020 is about 2.3 million barrels, and the oil and gas output of the company is expected to be 5.42 million barrels in 2022.
Expand the field of non-ferrous metals and distribute lithium hydroxide. From the current situation of global lithium resources distribution, the global lithium resources in 2020 will be about 86 million tons, of which the lithium resources in South America, represented by Bolivia, account for about 58% of the world. Affected by the epidemic, the new production capacity of salt lakes in South America is less than expected, and it is difficult for Australian mines to stop production and resume production in the short term. It is estimated that there will be a supply gap of 27300, 31500 and 5700 tons of LCE from 2021 to 2023, We judge that the lithium industry will be in a tight balance between supply and demand from 2021 to 2023. The company's lithium salt processing project is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023. It is expected that lithium hydroxide will bring the company a revenue of 1.75 billion yuan in 2023.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.121/11.45/1.087 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to eps0.01 billion 55 / 0.57/0.54 yuan / share. Give the company 19 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 10.45 yuan. The company doubled its output by improving the grade of iron ore and acquiring oil fields. In addition, the company invested in lithium hydroxide to open a new chapter in nonferrous metals. For the first time, give a "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the price fluctuation risk of iron ore and crude oil, and the production of lithium carbonate is less than expected
