\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 323 Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) )
Event: Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 11.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%.
Key investment points:
The new 8300 T / D waste incineration project has driven a significant increase in revenue. In 2021, the company added 8300 tons / day of waste incineration capacity, driving the revenue of solid waste treatment business to increase by 62.63% year-on-year to 6.568 billion yuan. By the end of 2021, the scale of domestic waste incineration power generation projects put into operation by the company was 25550 tons / day, the scale of trial operation projects was 500 tons / day, the scale of projects under construction was 3350 tons / day, the scale of projects under preparation was 1450 tons / day, and the scale of projects not built was 3300 tons / day (the scale of new projects in 2021 was 2100 tons / day).
The horizontal and vertical integrated layout accelerated the landing, and the solid waste business blossomed in multiple points. In 2021, the company added 250 tons / day of hazardous waste disposal (82 tons / day of incineration; 86 tons / day of physicochemical; 82 tons / day of sludge) and 89900 tons / day of industrial hazardous waste disposal, with a year-on-year increase of 120.88%; The industrial hazardous waste sector achieved an income of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232%. The company’s environmental sanitation business achieved a revenue of 731 million yuan, an increase of 221 million yuan over 2020, a year-on-year increase of 43%; At the same time, kitchen / kitchen waste treatment business, agricultural waste treatment business and landfill business have achieved rapid growth; Solid waste business blossoms at many points.
The sales volume of natural gas increased significantly, and the rise of international energy prices led to the decline of gross profit margin. In 2021, with the completion of the clean energy transformation project of building ceramic enterprises in Nanhai District, Foshan City, the annual gas consumption of ceramic enterprises increased by 233 million m3, driving the annual natural gas sales of the company to increase by 57.18% year-on-year to 987 million m3. In the second half of 2021, international energy prices continued to rise, and the company’s comprehensive natural gas procurement cost rose; The price limit policy of natural gas led to the upside down of purchase and sales prices and the loss of natural gas business in the second half of the year, resulting in the year-on-year decrease of 12.33pct to 5.36% in the gross profit margin of the energy sector.
Gross profit margin and three major expense rates have decreased. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 22.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.62pct; The net interest rate was 10.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.07 PCT; Mainly due to the impact of higher international energy prices on the energy business accounting for 29.28% of revenue, the gross profit margin of the sector decreased by 12.33pct year-on-year. In 2021, the three major expense rates of the company decreased; Among them, the management fee rate was 4.94%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.61 PCT, the largest decrease.
Profit forecast and investment rating we believe that the company has sufficient reserves of solid waste projects in hand, high short-term energy prices control the company’s profits, and may improve in the medium and long term. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 1.199/1.528/1.909 billion respectively, corresponding to 13 / 10 / 8 times of PE. It will be covered for the first time and rated as “overweight”.
Risk warning: the scale of new projects is less than expected; The implementation progress of projects under construction is less than expected; The continuous rise of natural gas price leads to the risk of decline in gross profit margin; Impairment risk of accounts receivable; The risk of recurrent outbreaks.
